Next French Presidential Election

I assess a high likelihood that the market’s Yes outcome occurs, because the available evidence suggests USAID has already been functionally eliminated during Trump’s term and remaining obstacles look mostly legal or semantic rather than operational. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves “eliminated” as formal statutory repeal versus de facto shutdown and absorption into State.

The evidence favors New Hampshire not being the first Democratic contest in 2028. Recent calendar reporting points to South Carolina first, with New Hampshire early but not earliest.

BbY WOW has strong momentum and could plausibly land at number two, but the U.S. streaming evidence still suggests it is more likely to sit just behind a stronger domestic leader rather than clearly control the runner-up spot. I would price a moderate chance rather than a favorite outcome.