Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

The key evidence points to Anthropic moving first in the IPO process, with reports placing its confidential draft S-1 on June 1, 2026, while OpenAI publicly disclosed its confidential filing on June 8, 2026. That ordering matters because the market question is most naturally interpreted as which company actually IPOs first, and the available reporting also suggests Anthropic may be targeting an earlier public debut window than OpenAI. OpenAI’s timing is more conflicted: some reporting still points to a possible fall 2026 listing, but multiple later reports say the company is leaning toward 2027, which weakens the case for it beating Anthropic to market.

Arguments for Yes are that OpenAI has the larger urgency to move after filing, and some sources still describe a 2026 window as plausible if management decides not to wait for a fuller valuation. The market also may be interpreting the question loosely, in which case a faster OpenAI listing would remain very live if it accelerates before year-end. But the balance of the reporting suggests OpenAI’s own internal preference has shifted later, and that is exactly the kind of change that can cause a filed-but-unscheduled IPO to lose a race.

Against Yes, Anthropic has the stronger early-mover signal because it appears to have filed first and has been reported as considering an earlier listing. OpenAI’s repeated association with 2027 makes a first-to-market outcome less likely, especially when both companies still retain discretion to delay based on market conditions. At a Yes price of 0.81, the market appears to be assigning a very high probability that OpenAI wins this race, but the public evidence looks closer to a coin flip with a modest Anthropic edge, so the current price looks rich relative to the available timing signals.