Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
The probability of the United States acquiring any part of Canada before 2029 is very low, but not zero. Trump-style rhetoric and tariff pressure create headline risk, yet there is no visible pathway to a legal territorial transfer and public opposition is overwhelming.
Analysis
Relative to the market price of 13% Yes, the market looks materially too optimistic about the chance of any Canadian territory changing hands before 2029. A 4% estimate better reflects the gap between loud political signaling and the near-total absence of a realistic legal, diplomatic, or domestic political path to transfer sovereignty.
Arguments
For
- Trump has repeatedly spoken about annexing Canada or making it the 51st state.
- Economic coercion and trade disputes could keep the issue active enough to sustain tail-risk scenarios.
Against
- Canada’s public and political leadership are overwhelmingly opposed to becoming part of the United States.
- There is no documented treaty, legislative push, or negotiation process that would make acquisition plausible before 2029.
Key drivers
- No official U.S. policy track or bilateral negotiation is visible in the available reporting.
- Public opposition in Canada and the United States makes any territorial transfer politically prohibitive.
Risk factors
- Trump could continue using annexation rhetoric to justify extreme bargaining tactics.
- An extreme geopolitical crisis could create unusual pressure for partial territorial arrangements or concessions.
Scenarios
Best case
A symbolic or limited territorial concession emerges from an extreme crisis, but not full annexation; this would still count as Yes if any Canadian territory were formally acquired.
Most likely
Trump continues to use annexation language for leverage, but the lack of legal, political, and diplomatic support keeps the outcome at No.
Worst case
The rhetoric fades into a trade and security dispute with no territorial transfer, leaving Canada fully sovereign throughout the period.
More from this day
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
AI84%MKT8%Edge+76Hidden GemMost credible domestic forecasts sit well below $280 million, so I think the under-threshold outcome is much more likely than the market price suggests. The main upside risk is that Spider-Man can still produce a record-level opening, but that would require a major surprise versus current tracking.
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office
AI73%MKT2%Edge+71Hidden GemThe current tracking suggests a very large opening, but not necessarily one large enough to clear 120m on the opening day figure used by this market. I think less than 120m is more likely than the market price implies, with the center of gravity in the low-to-mid 100s rather than comfortably above the line.
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
"The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office
AI71%MKT9%Edge+62Hidden GemThe latest box office tracking and industry forecasts point to a third weekend around the mid-40 millions, which puts the under-47m outcome in the lead. The market appears to be pricing in a meaningful chance of a stronger-than-expected hold, but the balance of evidence still favors Yes.