Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
Todd Blanche remains the clear favorite to be Trump's next attorney general, mainly because he is already the official nominee and is serving in the job on an acting basis. I am a bit less bullish than the market because the Senate fight is real and could still force a delay or a pivot to an alternative loyalist.
Analysis
Blanche has the strongest structural advantage in the field: he is Trump’s chosen nominee and is already functioning as acting attorney general, which usually creates substantial inertia toward confirmation. The current obstacle appears to be a Senate-specific dispute rather than a broad collapse in support, so the most likely path is still eventual approval after some bargaining or delay.
The main reason not to be even more confident is that this nomination is not sailing through cleanly. Cornyn’s resistance shows that a small number of Republican senators can meaningfully slow the process, and if the standoff drags on, Trump has incentives to consider another loyalist who could clear the Senate more easily and restore momentum.
Compared with the current market price, I am slightly more cautious on Blanche than the market is. A 75% quote seems a touch optimistic because confirmation risk is still material, but the market is directionally right that Blanche is the dominant outcome; the bigger error would be to treat the Senate delay as evidence that the nomination is fundamentally doomed, which it is not.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Blanche is already the named nominee, which makes him the default choice absent a major reversal.
- Arguments for Yes: His acting-AG status gives Trump and the administration an incentive to keep him in place and work through confirmation.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Republican senators have shown they can slow or condition his confirmation, so the process is not assured.
- Arguments against Yes: If Trump gets frustrated, he could switch to another loyalist rather than spend more capital on Blanche.
Key drivers
- Blanche is the official nominee and already has the advantage of incumbency as acting attorney general.
- The confirmation fight appears to hinge on a narrow policy dispute rather than a full-party revolt.
Risk factors
- A prolonged Senate stalemate could push Trump to replace Blanche with a faster-confirming backup.
- A fresh controversy or whip-count problem in the Judiciary Committee could turn a delay into a real nomination loss.
Scenarios
Best case
Blanche cuts a deal with Senate Republicans, clears the committee, and is confirmed as attorney general after a short delay.
Most likely
Blanche survives the current Senate resistance, the issue is negotiated down, and he ultimately becomes the next attorney general, though not as smoothly as the market implies.
Worst case
The nomination stalls long enough that Trump withdraws Blanche and names a different candidate who then becomes the next attorney general.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Todd Blanche | 70% | 75% |
| Lee Zeldin | 10% | 8% |
| Ron DeSantis | 8% | 5% |
| Jeanine Pirro | 7% | 4% |
| Andrew Bailey | 5% | 1% |
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