Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
USAID looks meaningfully vulnerable, but a true elimination is still not the base case because legal and congressional constraints are substantial. I estimate a 41% chance that it is eliminated in the sense this market is likely to resolve it.
Analysis
The strongest evidence points to an aggressive attempt to dismantle USAID’s independent operations: employees were put on leave, programs were canceled, and there is an apparent effort to absorb functions into the State Department. That is a serious operational blow and shows clear intent, but it is still not the same thing as final elimination in law. If the market resolves on whether USAID ceases to function as a distinct agency, the odds rise; if it requires formal abolition or an unmistakably completed merger authorized by law, the odds fall materially.
The biggest obstacle to a Yes outcome is institutional durability. USAID has an established legal basis and the provided context does not show Congress formally abolishing it. Litigation also creates a path for injunctions, delays, or a partial rollback that leaves the agency existing on paper even if diminished in practice. In other words, the administration has already demonstrated capability to disrupt the agency, but disruption is easier than irreversible elimination.
Relative to the current 29% Yes price, I think the market is somewhat too low if the contract resolves broadly on practical elimination or absorption into State. The administration has already crossed beyond rhetoric into concrete dismantling actions, and the remaining time through 2029 leaves room for further executive action, court outcomes, or legislative bargaining. But I would not price it near a majority because the need for durable legal closure makes a clean elimination less likely than a severe downsizing or effective merger.
Arguments
For
- Trump has already initiated actions consistent with dismantling the agency, including leave, cancellations, and absorption efforts.
- There is ample time left in the term for additional executive, administrative, or legislative moves to finish the job.
Against
- No provided evidence shows Congress has abolished USAID or that elimination has been legally finalized.
- Litigation and statutory constraints make a clean, irreversible elimination harder than a partial shutdown.
Key drivers
- The administration has already taken concrete steps to shut down or absorb USAID’s operations.
- A formal elimination may require congressional or legally durable action that has not yet been shown.
Risk factors
- Courts could block or unwind the shutdown effort before it becomes final.
- The market may resolve narrowly on statutory abolition rather than functional dismantling, reducing Yes odds.
Scenarios
Best case
The administration successfully folds USAID’s functions into the State Department, courts do not stop it, and the market treats that as elimination.
Most likely
USAID is heavily downsized and partially absorbed into State, but the agency’s formal existence survives or the legal status remains contested.
Worst case
Courts or political resistance preserve USAID as a distinct agency, leaving it weakened but not eliminated.
More from this day
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)
AI84%MKT8%Edge+76Hidden GemMost credible domestic forecasts sit well below $280 million, so I think the under-threshold outcome is much more likely than the market price suggests. The main upside risk is that Spider-Man can still produce a record-level opening, but that would require a major surprise versus current tracking.
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office
AI73%MKT2%Edge+71Hidden GemThe current tracking suggests a very large opening, but not necessarily one large enough to clear 120m on the opening day figure used by this market. I think less than 120m is more likely than the market price implies, with the center of gravity in the low-to-mid 100s rather than comfortably above the line.
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
"The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office
AI71%MKT9%Edge+62Hidden GemThe latest box office tracking and industry forecasts point to a third weekend around the mid-40 millions, which puts the under-47m outcome in the lead. The market appears to be pricing in a meaningful chance of a stronger-than-expected hold, but the balance of evidence still favors Yes.