Edges for Sep 15, 2026

Alibaba is still a serious contender, but the supplied evidence does not support it as the clear front-runner for the top Chinese model at month-end. The latest ranking snapshot and recent leaderboard movement both favor rivals, so I rate Alibaba below the market price.

Barron Trump receiving a presidential pardon before January 2029 looks extremely unlikely because there is no evidence he faces any federal charge or pending clemency matter. I would put the chance in the low single digits, far below the current 50% market price.

Pluribus has already won well more than one Emmy, so the 0-or-1-award outcome is effectively off the table. The Yes side now only survives through an extraordinary reporting or resolution error.

Scheffler is still one U.S. Open away from the career grand slam, and he has enough time and enough chances before 2028 that the Yes side looks materially undervalued. I’d put the independent probability in the low-to-mid 30s, well above the current market.

I estimate about a 41% chance Trump is impeached before Jan. 20, 2029. The odds are materially lower than the market because impeachment still depends on a specific political chain: Democrats winning the House, choosing impeachment over investigations, and sustaining party discipline through a contentious vote.

I think Boeing is more likely than not to fall short of 640 commercial deliveries in 2026. The recovery in output has been real, but the threshold is high enough that it likely requires near-sustained execution across 737 and 787 programs with very little disruption.

I make an Illinois relocation by the first game of the 2028 season less likely than the market does. The most plausible path from the current reporting is a move to Indiana, while an Illinois site still has a meaningful but clearly secondary chance.

The bear case for Trump in 2026 looks meaningfully more plausible than the market implies, but it is still far from a majority outcome. I estimate about a one-in-four chance that 2026 produces enough legal, policy, and political damage to qualify as a clear Trump down year.

I think the chance that Trump actually takes back the Panama Canal during this term is very low, because the reported facts show only rhetoric and rejection by Panama, not any plausible pathway to a real transfer of sovereignty. My independent estimate is far below the market price.

Trump is fairly likely to use large-money language in a campaign-style North Carolina speech, but reaching 20 combined mentions of million, billion, or trillion is still a fairly high bar. I put the chance of Yes below the market price because repeated usage is plausible, yet not strongly supported by the specific context provided.

I put the chance the US acquires control of any part of Greenland before 2029 at about 4%. The market’s 20% yes price looks far too high for an event that would require extraordinary geopolitical agreement from Denmark and Greenland.

I put the chance of Trump resigning before the end of the term at low single digits, around 4%. Resignation would require an unusually severe political or personal shock, and history suggests presidents almost never choose to leave voluntarily.

I think the Fed is more likely than not to leave rates unchanged in December 2027, but the market is probably too confident about a hold. The long horizon leaves substantial room for either a late-cycle easing move or an inflation-driven hike before then.

Samuel Alito has a meaningful chance to leave the Court before Trump’s term ends, but resignation is still a fairly high bar for a justice who has shown no strong sign of stepping down. I put the probability below the market at 48%.

I think there is still a better-than-even chance that AI solves no qualifying Millennium Prize Problems in 2026. The recent Navier-Stokes claim is notable, but it does not count for this market, and the remaining qualifying problems still look extraordinarily hard to credibly and publicly announce before year-end.

I put the odds that USAID is eliminated during Trump’s term meaningfully above the market, but still below a coin flip. The most plausible path is a serious attempted dismantling or absorption into another department, while full legal elimination remains constrained by Congress and the courts.

Robinhood has a credible path to surpassing 30.2 million funded customers in 2026, but it is not a lock because the base is now large and growth rates can slow. I price the Yes outcome at 41%, above the market’s 28% because the threshold is reachable with only moderate net additions from here.

I put the chance of the United States acquiring any part of Canada before 2029 at 2%. This is an extreme geopolitical event with no visible pathway under current institutions, allied relationships, or Canadian domestic politics.

Scott Jennings looks like a long shot to become the next White House Press Secretary. The more plausible successors are current Trump-world communications insiders, especially Anna Kelly and Margo Martin.

Andrew Oldham is a credible Supreme Court contender, but the absence of any current vacancy or nomination makes the overall chance of him being the next Justice meaningfully lower than the market implies. I estimate about a 13% yes probability, with Oldham still the leading name among the listed contenders but not by enough to justify a 25% price.

I think a 2027 recession is more likely than the market implies, but still not the base case. My independent estimate is about 34%, reflecting meaningful downside risk from an AI/asset-price shock, sticky inflation, or a policy mistake, offset by a still-resilient baseline growth outlook.

I estimate a materially lower chance than the market that the next president confirms exactly two Supreme Court justices. The most likely outcomes are still 0 or 1, with 2 plausible but not the modal case.

I see NYC as roughly a coin flip between a very small gain and a very small decline over July 2025 to July 2027, with a slight lean toward the downside because housing constraints and domestic outmigration still offset most demographic support. The market’s 39% for a small increase looks a bit high, though not wildly so.

Kari Lake has a real path to confirmation, but the combination of controversy, the remaining Senate calendar, and the lack of visible movement makes the timing uncertain. I think the market is somewhat too bearish, with a modestly higher chance than 24% that she is confirmed before Apr. 1, 2027.

My independent view is that US real GDP growth in 2036 is more likely to land in the 1.6% to 2.0% band than anywhere else, with a meaningful but smaller chance of a mild recessionary or sub-1% outcome. The market looks somewhat too pessimistic on the center of the distribution and a bit too confident that growth will miss trend.

I think measles cases are more likely than the market suggests to end up elevated during Trump’s term, but the outcome is still highly uncertain because measles remains capable of being contained by strong local public health responses. My independent estimate is modestly below even odds, not a strong Yes.

Bristol City look slightly more likely to win than the market implies, mainly because they should have the stronger overall squad and home advantage. The absence of recent news and the unusual matchup labeling leave meaningful uncertainty, so this is not a high-confidence call.

The most likely outcome is a middle-of-the-road GDP growth band around 2% to 3%, with 2.1% to 2.5% and 2.6% to 3.0% the strongest contenders. I think the market is a bit too cautious on moderate growth and slightly overweights stagnation or near-zero outcomes.

Trump is more likely than not to keep H-1B policy restrictive, but there is still a meaningful chance he broadens access for high-skill workers under business pressure. I estimate a 25% chance of a true expansion by the end of the term.

Keith Sonderling is the clear frontrunner and I assign him a very high chance of being Trump's next Secretary of Labor. The main reason is that he appears to combine continuity, confirmation practicality, and insider familiarity in a way the smaller alternative names do not.

BbY WOW has strong current momentum and a credible path to finishing near the top of the U.S. Spotify chart, but it is not an overwhelmingly secure lock for #2. I would price Yes somewhat below the market, with a meaningful chance that another high-volume track edges it out.

Democrats have a credible path to taking the House, but the Senate remains the gating factor and still requires a fairly demanding net gain. Overall, I think the combined outcome of a Democratic Senate and Democratic House is slightly less likely than the market implies.

Pete Hegseth looks like the single most plausible next Cabinet departure, but not by a wide margin. The strongest case is ongoing Pentagon turmoil and Trump’s willingness to cut losses if Hegseth becomes politically costly, yet explicit White House backing keeps this from being a high-conviction call.

The market is pricing a low chance of PPI YoY coming in at 5.0% or lower, and that looks broadly justified given the latest 5.4% August print and the still-sticky core backdrop. I think the Yes outcome is possible if monthly producer prices soften sharply in September, but the base case remains above the threshold.

Buying Greenland remains extraordinarily unlikely, even with Trump’s past interest and willingness to push unusual geopolitical ideas. I estimate a low single-digit to mid-single-digit chance, well below the current market price.

I think there is a better-than-even chance that Variational's token clears an $800M FDV one day after launch, but the margin is not huge because early post-launch prices can be highly unstable. The market’s current price looks broadly reasonable, though I would trim it slightly given the uncertainty around launch timing, supply details, and initial liquidity.

The mission still looks plausible within the deadline, but the evidence is not strong enough to justify a majority chance. Given the repeated delays, weak official confirmation, and dependence on another mission’s schedule, I make this a modestly sub-50% outcome for Yes.

My independent estimate is that the chance Trump is both impeached and removed from office before the end of his term is low, around 8%. Impeachment alone is plausible in a politically explosive environment, but removal by the Senate remains the real bottleneck.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment remains possible but still unlikely to be used during Trump’s presidency. The political and procedural hurdles are enormous, and absent a dramatic incapacity event or a major internal rupture, the most likely outcome is that it is never formally invoked.

My base case is that 2033 US real GDP growth lands in the 1.1% to 1.5% range, with a substantial tail toward slightly stronger growth if productivity stays elevated. The market looks broadly efficient but a bit too concentrated in the first bucket relative to the odds of a 1.6% to 2.0% outcome.

Democrats are still the favorite to control the House after the 2026 midterms, but the market is pricing a fairly strong lean that may be a bit aggressive given how competitive midterms can be. I would put the chance of a Democratic House at 81%.

The Yes outcome looks very likely because the contract is narrowly defined around whether the United States launched a qualifying strike against Iran, and the available reporting suggests no such strike occurred during the needed 14-day window before September 4. The main uncertainty is whether any later escalation or disputed reporting would retroactively affect the window, but that appears unlikely given the market price and the absence of evidence of a qualifying U.S. strike.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks slightly more likely than not, but it still requires a meaningful breakout from the current price region. The market’s current pricing and the recent technical setup support a moderate Yes edge rather than a strong conviction call.

Anthropic remains the likeliest winner because it is already leading this market and has shown sustained strength on the specific arena leaderboard that determines resolution. Still, the gap is not so wide that OpenAI or another provider cannot overtake it in the final check, so I would shade slightly below the current market price.

BSD is a plausible target, but the evidence so far only supports generic AI progress on a Millennium problem, not a BSD-specific breakthrough. I think the market is a bit too optimistic on BSD being the next one, so I put it below the current implied price.

Gavin Newsom has a plausible path to the 2028 Democratic nomination, but he is far from assured and faces substantial competition from other national Democrats. I think the market is slightly underestimating his chances, though the race remains highly open this far out.

A Fed rate hike in 2026 looks more likely than not, and the current market price near 90% appears broadly consistent with the macro backdrop. Inflation has re-accelerated enough that at least one hike is now a live outcome, though the path still depends on whether price and labor data stay firm through late 2026.

Elon Musk staying under 40 counted posts in this 48-hour window looks possible but not likely. The recent pace of activity and the market’s strong lean toward 40-64 suggest a sub-40 outcome is more of a minority case than the base case.

I think a Senate vote with more than 50 yea votes is somewhat less likely than the market implies, but still plausible if the bill becomes a broadly negotiated bipartisan package. My estimate is 41% for Yes.

I think a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 is unlikely, but not impossible. The market price around 16.5% already reflects a serious tail risk, and my estimate is slightly below that because the threshold requires an actual offensive aimed at controlling territory, not just strikes or escalation.

I assign a modest chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will get back to a 7-day average of at least 60 ship arrivals before year-end. The market’s low price is understandable because the threshold is fairly high and geopolitical disruption can linger, but a recovery is still plausible if shipping patterns stabilize over the next few months.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in September looks unlikely but not impossible, with the current market implying a very low chance and the remaining time window being the main constraint. I estimate a modestly higher probability than the market, but still clearly below 10%.

Republicans have a credible path to the White House in 2028, but the market’s 33% price looks a bit low only if the political environment turns sharply against the current governing party. My estimate is that Republicans are still more likely than not to lose, with a meaningful but minority chance of winning.

This market is leaning No, and I agree with that tilt. A Russia performance by October 31 looks possible if the scheduled October appearance actually happens, but the combination of travel, logistics, reputational issues, and geopolitical friction makes it far from reliable.

Gianni Infantino is still FIFA president and the recent news is about weakening support for his 2027 re-election, not an actual departure. Unless there is a sudden resignation, removal, or disqualifying scandal before year-end, the No side remains overwhelmingly favored.

A second qualifying Millennium Prize claim by an eligible AI lab before September 30 looks possible but still unlikely. The recent OpenAI Navier-Stokes announcement raises the odds somewhat, but a follow-on announcement requires another major breakthrough and a very short timing window.

Dune: Part Three looks like a legitimate Best Picture contender, but the current evidence still places it behind several stronger early favorites. Its path to a win is real but narrow, so the No side remains favored.

Ipswich winning looks possible only as a cup upset, but the market and matchup both point strongly toward Arsenal. I think the true chance of an Ipswich victory is a little above the current price but still clearly in the low teens.

Anthropic looks like the leading contender and should remain favored, but the margin is not so large that a late-month swap can be ignored. I put the chance of Anthropic finishing first at 83%.

The market is heavily tilted toward No, and that looks broadly justified. A brief dip below 4.45% is possible if Treasury yields soften on incoming economic data or a risk-off move, but the threshold is close enough that the remaining September window still leaves only a modest chance of Yes.