Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

USAID is one of the most ideologically vulnerable agencies in a Trump administration because it sits at the intersection of foreign aid, bureaucracy, and presidential control. Trump has repeatedly shown willingness to slash, reorganize, or hollow out institutions he views as misaligned with his agenda, and USAID is an especially natural target for that style of governance. If the administration is aggressive and willing to spend political capital, there is a credible path to eliminating the agency in practice by folding functions into the State Department, cutting budgets to the bone, or forcing a structural reorganization that leaves the standalone entity defunct.

Against that, true elimination is harder than attacking an agency rhetorically. USAID is embedded in statute, foreign policy workflows, appropriations, and contractor ecosystems, which means a durable wipeout likely requires congressional action or at least a very favorable legal environment. Even a determined White House can face injunctions, administrative law hurdles, and pushback from appropriators, diplomats, humanitarian groups, and members of both parties who see value in maintaining an independent aid apparatus. That makes “eliminated” a much higher bar than “severely weakened,” and markets often blur that distinction.

Relative to the current price, 23% looks a bit low if the market is pricing a realistic chance that Trump can meaningfully move against USAID over a four-year term. The market may be underweighting how much a second Trump term could prioritize institutional restructuring and how little political appetite there may be to defend foreign aid agencies in Congress. Still, I would not push the probability close to a majority because the legal and legislative friction is substantial, and a lot of what looks like elimination could end up being partial consolidation instead of a clean disappearance.