Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Alito is old enough that a departure during the next few years is plausible, and the political incentives are straightforward: a conservative justice who wants a like-minded successor has a window under a Republican president. If his health, family circumstances, or desire to control the timing of a transition become salient, retirement or resignation before January 2029 would be very understandable. Age alone makes the event non-trivial, especially over a multi-year horizon.

At the same time, Supreme Court justices are notoriously slow to leave, and voluntary resignation is less common than people often assume. Alito has already served for many years and may prefer to stay as long as he remains capable, particularly given the Court’s importance and the fact that he could continue shaping major constitutional outcomes. There is also a distinction between a formal resignation and other ways he could depart; if the market is counting only a clear voluntary resignation, that tightens the bar considerably.

The current market price of 64% looks too optimistic to me. That level implies a departure is more likely than not by a wide margin, but the base rate for a sitting justice to resign over a roughly three-year period is still modest, even adjusting for age. I think the market may be overweighting the political logic of a Republican appointment window and underweighting the institutional inertia that keeps justices on the bench until they are well into their late 70s or 80s, or until an external health event forces the issue.