Will Trump resign during his term?

A voluntary resignation by a sitting president is exceptionally rare, and Trump in particular has shown a strong preference for fighting through controversy rather than exiting under pressure. The most plausible paths to a resignation would be a major health event, a catastrophic legal or political development, or an unexpected bargain that makes departure preferable to staying, but all of those are tail-risk scenarios rather than base cases. Absent concrete evidence of a crisis, the default assumption should be that he intends to remain in office through the term unless forced out by circumstances beyond ordinary politics.

There is also a high bar between turmoil and resignation. Presidents can absorb scandals, investigations, personnel upheaval, and poor approval ratings without resigning, and Trump’s public persona has generally rewarded defiance rather than concession. Even if conditions deteriorate, the more likely outcomes are continued resistance, impeachment battles, or management through loyalists, not a voluntary step down. The historical frequency of presidential resignation is so low that any double-digit probability needs very strong, specific evidence.

The current market price of 20% for Yes looks materially too high relative to that baseline. It appears to be pricing in a broad range of dramatic contingencies, but most such contingencies are more likely to end in continuation, forced removal attempts, or electoral replacement than a true resignation. In the absence of fresh reporting pointing to imminent health or legal collapse, I think the market is overestimating the chance that Trump personally chooses to resign before his term ends.