Edges for Sep 10, 2026

Starbucks has a credible path to clear 41,800 global stores by its 2026 reporting date, and I think the market is pricing in too little growth. My independent estimate is a 64% chance of Yes, not 11%.

I think Anthropic is more likely to IPO before OpenAI, so the Yes outcome is only moderately likely. The current market looks too optimistic on OpenAI getting to the finish line first given the newer guidance that OpenAI is likely a 2027 story while Anthropic is being discussed in near-term IPO windows.

Barron Trump receiving a pardon before 2029 looks very unlikely based on the available information. The main reason is simple: there is no sign he needs one, and a pardon requires an underlying offense or at least a credible legal predicament to resolve.

I think the chance that 2026 meaningfully qualifies as a Trump bear-case year is much higher than the market implies, because the year already contains multiple fresh legal setbacks and the pattern is accumulating rather than isolated. My estimate is 41%, with the main uncertainty being how broadly the market defines “bear case.”

Robinhood has a credible path to clear 30.2 million funded customers in 2026, because it is already at 28.4 million and only needs roughly 1.8 million more from a business that is still adding users. I make this a meaningfully higher-probability outcome than the market, though not a lock because growth could slow from the recent pace.

I think a move to a new Illinois location by the first game of the 2028 season is meaningfully less likely than the market implies. The timeline still looks too compressed, and the more likely near-term path is either an Indiana landing spot or continued delay beyond 2028.

I think Boeing is more likely than not to fall short of 640 commercial deliveries in 2026. The market appears to be pricing in a fairly aggressive production recovery that is possible but not yet the base case.

Scottie Scheffler has a meaningful but not overwhelming chance to complete the career Grand Slam by early 2028. I make this substantially higher than the market, because one remaining major title is a realistic target for a player of his caliber over the next two seasons.

Impeachment is plausible but far from likely enough to justify a two-thirds-plus probability. I estimate the chance at about 42%, with the market appearing meaningfully overconfident on the Yes side.

Anthropic is still a leading contender and may well finish first, but the market appears to be pricing in too much certainty given how quickly the leaderboard can move. I think Yes is more likely than not, but far from a lock.

I put the chance of Trump actually taking back the Panama Canal at very low, around 6%. The idea is politically dramatic but faces overwhelming legal, diplomatic, and military obstacles, so the market looks far too optimistic on Yes.

The most likely outcome is a pause, with the Bank of Russia leaving the key rate unchanged at 14% in September. A small cut is still plausible, but the balance of current commentary and policy signaling leans against a decrease.

I think there is a meaningful chance Alito steps down during Trump’s term, but not as high as the market suggests. My independent estimate is 43%, with the biggest reason being that he is old enough that an ordinary retirement window exists, while the strongest reason against is that he has every incentive to stay unless health or personal factors force the issue.

The most likely outcome is that 2036 U.S. real GDP growth lands in the 1.6% to 2.0% band, with a meaningful chance of slightly slower growth and a smaller but real chance of a stronger year. I put the central range at 34%, which is materially above the market’s 19% for that outcome.

This looks close to a coin flip, but I lean slightly toward Yes based on the market’s near-even pricing and the fact that a full 14-day gap is often more likely than an isolated strike in a high-profile conflict environment. Without fresh reports of an actual U.S. strike on Iran, the base rate and the current market imply a modest Yes edge, but not a strong one.

I estimate a low single-digit to high single-digit chance that Trump voluntarily resigns before the end of the term. The market’s 22% Yes price looks too high for an event that has almost never happened in modern U.S. history and would require Trump to give up power on his own.

I think a 2027 recession is meaningfully more likely than the market suggests, but still not the most likely outcome. My independent estimate is 39% Yes, reflecting a real but not dominant chance that slower growth, tighter credit, or a policy shock tips the economy into contraction.

Arsenal look like one of the strongest title candidates, but Premier League championship markets usually overstate certainty because injuries, fixture variance, and rival depth can quickly change the picture. I think the market is a bit too optimistic on a straight Arsenal win, so I would price Yes below the current level.

The chance that Trump successfully buys even part of Greenland during this term is very low, but not literally zero. I would put it around 7%, well below the current market price.

The mistrial keeps the case alive, but a conviction by year-end now depends on a fast prosecution decision, a quick retrial schedule, and a unanimous verdict, all within a tight window. I think the market is underpricing the possibility of a rapid retrial, but the overall odds of a murder conviction before December 31, 2026 are still modest.

I estimate a low chance that the U.S. acquires any part of Greenland before 2029, because the political and legal barriers to any sovereignty transfer remain enormous and there is no visible deal path. Continued U.S. interest raises the odds above zero, but not by much.

United Russia remains the clear favorite to gain the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. In Russia’s heavily managed political environment, the ruling party has strong institutional advantages and is far more likely than any rival to finish first on seat gains.

I put the chance of no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term at 95%. The most plausible outcome is continued rhetoric, negotiation noise, or some limited cooperation arrangement, not an actual sovereign transfer.

The chance that the United States acquires any part of Canada before 2029 is extremely low. I would put it at 3%, well below the current market’s 14% Yes price.

I assign a modest chance that a company will make a self-declared AGI announcement before Oct. 1, 2026, but the bar is mostly rhetorical rather than externally verified. The market’s 15% looks roughly fair, though I would lean slightly higher because the lack of a formal definition makes a surprise announcement easier than a true breakthrough consensus would be.

Democrats look strongly favored to win the House, but the market is pricing in an unusually high degree of certainty for an election that is still subject to turnout, district-level volatility, and the usual midterm swings. I would still lean Yes, though a bit below the current market price because the final seat margin can move sharply with a small national shift.

NVIDIA is a strong favorite to finish 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the lead is not so secure that the outcome should be priced near certainty. The main question is whether its valuation can stay ahead of Microsoft and Apple through year-end without a major earnings miss, sector rotation, or broad market drawdown.

Trump has shown a real willingness to brandish the Insurrection Act, and the odds are meaningfully higher than the market implies, but formal invocation still requires a sufficiently serious domestic unrest trigger and would invite immediate legal and political blowback. My independent estimate is 26% for Yes.

Bayern Munich remains the clear favorite to win the 2026-27 Bundesliga, but the market may be pricing in a bit too much certainty for a league title still two seasons away. I think the chance of Yes is high, though not as extreme as the current price implies.

Practical Magic 2 has a plausible path to a solid opening, but the 38 million threshold is still relatively demanding for a sequel to a 1990s cult title. I think under 38 million is somewhat more likely than not, though the market is priced the other way.

I estimate a moderate chance that Variational launches with an FDV above $800M one day after launch, but the absence of concrete launch and tokenomics details keeps this below the market price. The current market is leaning optimistic, and I think the true probability is somewhat lower than implied.

Solana reaching $140 by the end of 2026 looks plausible but not assured, with the market currently pricing in a meaningful chance of failure. I would put the probability somewhat above the current implied price because the time horizon is still long enough for a strong crypto rally, but the target is high enough that it still requires favorable market conditions.

I think the Yes outcome is still unlikely, but not as close to impossible as the market implies. Because the question is broad and undefined in the prompt, I put meaningful weight on a partial or noisy definition of the “bull case” being realized in 2026 rather than requiring an extreme, all-or-nothing outcome.

I lean slightly above the market toward a conviction, but still not by a wide margin. The combination of an aggravated murder charge and a long runway to trial makes Yes plausible, though plea bargaining, evidentiary disputes, and the possibility of a lesser resolution keep No favored overall.

Section IV of the 25th Amendment is possible but still unlikely to be formally invoked during Trump’s presidency. The most realistic path to a Yes would be a sudden, obvious presidential incapacity or a severe crisis that forces cabinet-level action, but the political and practical threshold is very high.

I put the chance that China overtakes the US in GDP by 2030 at 9%. China can still narrow the gap, but the combination of slower trend growth, property and demographics headwinds, and the strength of the dollar makes a full nominal overtaking by that date unlikely.

The market is pricing in a small but non-trivial chance of an AI lab formally claiming a Millennium Prize solution by the deadline. I think the true probability is lower than the current price, because the bar is extremely high and the announcement rule is strict, but it is not zero given the possibility of a surprising breakthrough or an aggressively timed claim.

Anthropic looks like a leading contender, but the race for the top arena model is highly competitive and can change quickly. I would price Yes somewhat below the market, with Anthropic still favored but not as strongly as 75%.

I գնահատimate a moderate chance that USAID is eliminated or functionally dismantled during Trump’s term, but not a majority chance. The legal and congressional barriers are real, so my independent probability is 34%.

I put a modestly higher-than-market chance on a Trump H-1B expansion, but still think No is more likely than Yes. The most plausible path to Yes is a targeted, pro-business adjustment rather than a broad ideological shift.

The market is pricing this as very unlikely, and that looks directionally right. A drop below 4.95% is possible if Treasury yields soften meaningfully in the second half of the month, but the threshold is close enough to recent levels that it is not impossible.

Marine Le Pen remains a plausible contender, but I think her path to victory is still meaningfully narrower than the market price suggests. Between the strong runoff barrier, likely anti-Le Pen consolidation, and significant legal or campaign uncertainty, I put her at about 30% to win the 2027 French presidential election.

Anthropic is still the most likely company to finish September in first place, but the margin is not as wide as the market price suggests because the leaderboard can move quickly if a rival releases or updates a top model late in the month. I estimate a strong but not overwhelming chance that Anthropic remains number one at the check on September 30.

This looks like a plausible but far-from-certain booking that still has meaningful execution risk. I rate Yes at 38%, modestly above the market price because an announced October performance is evidence of intent, but the combination of travel, scheduling, and reputational friction makes completion less likely than not.

Pete Hegseth looks like the single most vulnerable cabinet member, but the race is still fairly open. I put his chance of being the next to leave at 28%, a bit above the market because his profile combines controversy, visibility, and a relatively low tolerance for sustained negative attention.

A rate hold is still the single most likely outcome, but the probability is not as high as the market suggests because there is plenty of time for the policy path to shift before December 2027. I see a roughly even chance of no change versus some cut or hike by then.

A direct U.S. invasion of Iran before the end of 2026 remains possible but still very unlikely. The market price looks somewhat high for such an extreme escalation, and I would put the chance of Yes at 8%.

The market is strongly pricing in no Fed rate cuts in 2026, and that looks broadly defensible given the absence of evidence for imminent easing and the remaining uncertainty around inflation. Still, with several FOMC meetings left and the economy capable of softening late in the year, I would assign a slightly lower probability than the market, not a dramatic one.

I estimate a fairly high chance of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026, though not quite as high as the current market price suggests. The odds favor a hike if inflation proves sticky or growth re-accelerates, but there is still meaningful room for the Fed to stay on hold if disinflation continues.

I think there is a better-than-even chance Astra eventually appears on the Arena leaderboard at or above 1480, but the exact first-score threshold is still uncertain enough that I would shade slightly below the market. The main reason for optimism is that OpenAI’s flagship models tend to debut very competitively, though the market is probably pricing in some genuine risk that the first visible score lands just under the line or the model appears under a different timing or naming path.

Manchester United are the clear favorite and should win this matchup more often than not, but the price looks slightly rich relative to the uncertainty in their recent form. I would still lean strongly Yes, just not quite as high as the market-implied probability.

New Hampshire is still the most likely first Democratic contest, but the probability is a bit lower than the market implies because the DNC has meaningful latitude to front-load another state or reshape the calendar. I would price Yes around 82%.

I think the market is a bit too optimistic on passage, but the chance of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 is still meaningful given the amount of time left and the political salience of crypto regulation. My estimate is 22% for Yes.

I put this at 16%. A Mars visit by Elon Musk is unlikely, but it is not a long-shot fantasy given his resources, intent, and the open-ended time horizon.

Gavin Newsom has a real but far-from-dominant path to the 2028 Democratic nomination. His national profile, fundraising ability, and executive experience make him a serious contender, but the field is likely to be crowded and the party may prefer a newer or less polarizing standard-bearer.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks possible but not the base case. The current mix of analyst ranges, technical resistance, and cautious prediction-market pricing suggests a roughly even-but-slightly-negative outlook for Yes, with meaningful upside if ETF demand and broader crypto momentum strengthen.

The market is still pricing a low chance of a full return to normal traffic, and that looks broadly justified. Some recovery has occurred, but reaching a 7-day average of 60 or more by December 31 would require a very large and sustained improvement in security and shipping confidence.

Google has a real path to the top spot because it remains one of the strongest frontier-model labs and can iterate quickly, but the market is already pricing in a low-probability outcome for a reason. I think Google is still more likely than not to miss first place by year-end 2026, though the chance is meaningfully above the current price.

A direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before January 1, 2027 is still unlikely, but not as close to impossible as the market suggests. I make it roughly a 15% event, with the main path being a negotiated ceasefire or high-level summit pushed by external pressure.

Trump is very likely to mention Democrats at least a few times, but reaching 25 or more repetitions in a single convention appearance is a fairly high bar. I put the chance of Yes slightly below the market, at 18%.