How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

As of September 10, 2026, the key question is not whether the Fed could cut at some point, but whether conditions will deteriorate enough before year-end to force even a single 25 basis point move. The market price implies that traders see a very high chance of holding the policy rate unchanged through all remaining meetings, which usually reflects either still-firm inflation, resilient labor data, or a Fed that has little urgency to ease. With only the September, October, and December meetings left, the path to no cuts is straightforward if incoming data remain merely decent rather than clearly recessionary or disinflationary.

Arguments for Yes are strong because central banks typically do not cut rates unless they have confidence that inflation is under control and growth or employment is weakening enough to justify the move. If the Fed has already spent much of 2026 waiting for more clarity, that suggests the bar for easing may be high, and the institution may prefer to keep real rates restrictive until there is unmistakable evidence of slower activity. In that setting, even a modestly soft economy may not be enough if inflation expectations remain sticky or if officials remain concerned about reacceleration risk.

Arguments against Yes center on the fact that three meetings are still a meaningful amount of time in macro terms. A late-summer or autumn deterioration in payrolls, unemployment, consumer demand, or financial conditions could quickly create pressure for a precautionary cut, especially if inflation has continued trending toward target. The market’s 93% implied probability of no cuts is high enough that it may leave only a small amount of room for a downturn surprise, but not so high that a single weak data run is impossible. My independent view is that no cuts remain the most likely outcome, but the chance of at least one 25 basis point cut is somewhat higher than the market is implying because the remaining calendar still allows a late-cycle policy pivot.