Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

The latest public reporting points in a clear direction: Anthropic is being described as actively preparing for IPO outreach in the near term, while OpenAI’s own messaging has shifted later, with reported internal guidance pointing to 2027 as the likely public-market timeline. That gap matters because IPO order is usually determined less by who is larger or more famous and more by who can complete the regulatory, accounting, governance, and market-readiness steps first. On the facts provided, Anthropic has the stronger near-term path and therefore looks more likely to reach the market before OpenAI.

There are still reasons not to be overly confident. Both companies are capable of delaying at the last minute, and confidential S-1 filings do not guarantee a listing date. OpenAI may choose to accelerate if private-market conditions become especially favorable, and a highly coordinated process could still let it surprise to the upside. But the direction of the most recent information matters: older late-2026 chatter for OpenAI has been overtaken by newer 2027 guidance, whereas Anthropic’s timing has been described in months, not years.

Against that backdrop, the 63% market price for Yes looks rich if Yes means OpenAI first. The market may be anchoring too heavily on OpenAI’s scale, brand recognition, and earlier speculation about a faster IPO, while underweighting the more current timing signal that Anthropic is ahead in practical readiness. My read is that the market is overstating OpenAI’s chance to beat Anthropic to listing, though the uncertainty remains meaningful because both timelines are still flexible and could shift with SEC review or adverse market conditions.