Edges for Aug 14, 2026

Anthropic flipping Bitcoin by the end of 2026 looks extraordinarily unlikely. The valuation gap is so large that it would likely require a once-in-a-generation private funding event for Anthropic and a major Bitcoin drawdown at the same time.

My read is that Spider-Man: Brand New Day is more likely to finish above 900M domestically by August 31 than below it. I put the chance of less than 900M at about 25%, because the film is already so far along that only an unusually sharp slowdown would keep it under the line.

USAID already looks functionally dismantled, with most staff, projects, and operational authority stripped away. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves on de facto elimination or requires formal statutory abolition, but I still see a Yes outcome as more likely than not.

I think the chance Barron Trump receives a presidential pardon before January 2029 is quite low. Trump could theoretically pardon family if a federal case ever arose, but Barron currently has no known exposure and a pardon requires an underlying offense.

Indiana is the most plausible destination if the Bears move, but the odds of completing that move by the 2028 opener are much lower than the market implies. The timeline, lease structure, and still-early due-diligence stage all point to a meaningful chance that nothing is finalized in time.

Taylor Budowich is the likeliest choice, but not nearly the near-certainty implied by the market. I make him a strong favorite at 68%, with meaningful upside for a more conventionally media-facing Trump loyalist if staffing priorities shift.

Anthropic is still the favorite, but the lead appears narrow enough that this is not close to a lock. I think the market is pricing in too much certainty, so my estimate is meaningfully below the current implied probability.

I think 2033 U.S. real GDP growth is most likely to land in the 1.6% to 2.0% band, with 1.1% to 1.5% as the main alternative. The market looks too skeptical of a steady-trend outcome and somewhat underweights both mean reversion and a modest productivity upside.

China’s CPI is likely to stay extremely subdued by August 2026, so a reading at or below 0.2% is plausible, but not the most likely outcome. Weak domestic demand supports the Yes case, while small rebounds in food, energy, or services inflation make a slightly higher print more probable.

Alibaba is a meaningful favorite because Qwen3.8-Max is already in the top tier and has fresh launch momentum, but the market appears to be pricing in too much certainty. The main reason to pull the probability below the current price is that the leaderboard is still competitive and a two-week window leaves room for another Chinese lab to overtake it.

Trump is still a credible impeachment target over the next two and a half years, but the path runs through House control and a concrete triggering event. My independent estimate is 47%, which is below the current market price.

ACRO Crew looks like a solid favorite to advance, but the price is a bit aggressive given the volatility of AGT live voting. I would still lean Yes, just at a slightly lower probability than the market implies.

I think a launch by June 30, 2027 is meaningfully less likely than the current market price suggests. The mission has had a long pattern of delays, and there is still too little visible evidence of a firm, imminent launch plan to justify a probability above even the mid-30s.

I think the chance the US formally acquires any part of Greenland before 2029 is quite low, around 7%. Trump-era rhetoric and strategic interest keep it from being zero, but a real territorial transfer would require extraordinary cooperation from Denmark and Greenland that currently looks unlikely.

I put the chance of the 25th Amendment being used during Trump's presidency at 13%. A temporary or procedural transfer is possible, but a true Section 4 invocation remains very unlikely given the political and institutional hurdles.

Samuel Alito is old enough that a departure before January 2029 is plausible, but Supreme Court justices often stay on the bench longer than outsiders expect. I put this below a coin flip and think the market is somewhat too optimistic on a resignation occurring during Trump’s term.

Elon Musk is still a strong candidate to remain above the $600B threshold by August 31, but that level is ambitious enough that a normal pullback in Tesla or private-asset valuations could easily put him back under it. I think the market is probably overstating the chance of staying above $600B, so I give a meaningful but still minority chance that the answer is Yes.

I estimate only a very small chance that Trump meaningfully regains U.S. control over the Panama Canal during his term. The market price looks far too high for an outcome that would require an extraordinary legal, diplomatic, or coercive break with decades of established sovereignty.

I put the chance of Trump resigning before the end of this term at about 6%. A voluntary resignation by a president is extraordinarily rare, and Trump’s personal and political incentives strongly favor staying in office unless an overwhelming, unavoidable crisis develops.

SpaceX has a real late-August target and enough time remaining for a launch, but the schedule is still tentative and Starship timelines slip often. I would put the chance of a Flight Test 14 launch by August 31 at 37%, above the market price but still well below even odds.

I put the chance that Trump buys at least part of Greenland during this term at about 6%. The idea has clear strategic logic and Trump has shown interest before, but the political, legal, and diplomatic obstacles are overwhelming.

I rate a modest NYC population increase over July 2025 to July 2027 at 33%, below the market. The most likely outcome is still a slight decline, with positive immigration and job growth offsetting but not fully overcoming housing and domestic out-migration pressures.

My read is that 2032 U.S. real GDP growth is most likely to land in the low-to-mid 2% range, with 2.1% to 2.5% modestly underpriced by the market. I think the market is leaning too hard on long-run drag and not enough on trend growth plus persistent AI-related investment.

I lean slightly toward no qualifying senior-level US-Iran meeting by September 30, although the June progress and ongoing technical channel keep this far from settled. The market’s no-meeting price looks a bit aggressive, but it is not unreasonable given the lack of a publicly scheduled follow-up round.

I think a U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term remains highly unlikely, with the no-acquisition outcome near-certain. The market is directionally correct, but I still think it underestimates the institutional and diplomatic obstacles to an actual territorial transfer.

I estimate about an 80% chance that OpenAI reaches the public markets before Anthropic. OpenAI has the clearer and more advanced IPO signal set, but the market appears to be treating that lead as close to certain when it is still vulnerable to delay.

A Fed rate hike in 2026 looks slightly more likely than not, but the path is still highly dependent on whether inflation stays sticky while the labor market avoids further deterioration. The biggest near-term obstacle is that the September meeting has moved toward a hold, yet later meetings still leave a meaningful window for a hike.

I put the chance at about 8%, materially below the market. Impeachment is plausible if political conditions sour, but actual removal would require a much rarer cross-party collapse in the Senate.

I estimate a meaningfully higher-than-market chance that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act at some point in his presidency, mainly because he has both the incentive and the rhetorical willingness to use domestic military powers in a crisis. Still, this remains an uncommon and politically fraught step, so the probability is well below a coin flip.

Robinhood can reach 30.2 million funded customers in 2026, but it still needs a meaningful acceleration from its already large base. I make it a minority outcome, just above the market price, because the business has multiple growth levers but the threshold is still ambitious for one year.

I put the chance of at least one company publicly announcing AGI before Jan. 1, 2027 at 22%. The market looks too low because the event only requires a claim, not broad agreement or proof, and the definitional ambiguity makes an announcement materially easier than true consensus AGI.

Anthropic looks like the strongest single company in the current text-arena race, and the market is already pricing that in heavily. I still lean Yes, but I am a bit less optimistic than the current price because a late rival release could easily flip the leaderboard.

Bad Bunny remains a very strong favorite to finish as Spotify’s top artist for 2026, but the outcome is not close to locked because the year is long and the field of global superstars is unusually deep. I would price Yes below the market, but still clearly above even odds.

Scheffler is good enough that this is not a true longshot if the market is asking about a career grand slam, but the short runway to 2028 still keeps it far from likely. I make the Yes chance meaningfully higher than the current price, though not close to certainty.

I think the chance of Trump having a broadly favorable 2026 is higher than the market implies, but still clearly a minority outcome. My independent estimate is 12%, reflecting a meaningful chance of policy, legal, or macro wins without assuming a full-blown landslide year.

Keith Sonderling looks like the most likely next Secretary of Labor, but the market may be a bit too confident in how locked-in that outcome is. I would still keep him well ahead of the field, just not at near-certain levels.

Ethereum has a real but limited path to $3,000 by the end of 2026, and the market’s low price reflects the need for a fairly strong late-year rally. I think the odds are modestly better than the market implies, but still well below a coin-flip.

NVIDIA is still the favorite to finish 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the current market price looks a little optimistic given how much can change in a few months. I estimate a mid-60s probability of Yes rather than the low-70s implied by the market.

I slightly favor the central growth buckets over the market, with 1.6% to 2.0% the single most likely outcome and 2.1% to 2.5% close behind. The market looks a bit too pessimistic on the middle of the distribution and a bit too confident in the low-growth tail.

Partido Liberal enters the 2026 Chamber election as the clear front-runner thanks to its current seat lead, large funding share, and strong incumbent base. Still, the race is far from locked because Brazil’s proportional system can reshuffle seat totals quickly, so I put the chance of PL finishing first at 63%.

Astra looks more likely than not to debut as a top-tier OpenAI model and clear 1480 on the Arena leaderboard. The main uncertainty is debut timing and whether the first counted score reflects a fully optimized snapshot, but the capability bar still appears reachable.

Ulf Kristersson still has a plausible path to remain prime minister, but the market is right that the odds are clearly tilted against him. I estimate a modest chance of continuity if the center-right bloc can hold together, but a larger chance that Sweden gets a different prime minister after the election.

Democrats are still the favorite to win Wisconsin governor in 2026, but the market looks a bit optimistic given how competitive the state can be if the race becomes an open seat. My assessment is that the Democratic chance is solidly above even money, though not as high as the current price implies.

I assess the chance of the U.S. acquiring any part of Canada before 2029 at about 2%. The market’s 5.8% looks too high given the absence of any real policy path and the extraordinary legal, diplomatic, and political barriers involved.

Arsenal have a real title-contender profile, but winning the Premier League is still a difficult outcome against deeper, more volatile competition. I would price their chance of taking the 2026-27 title at 34%, a bit below the market’s 39.5% Yes price.

NVIDIA is still the clear favorite to finish August as the world’s largest company by market cap. The short remaining time window and current market pricing both point strongly to Yes, though earnings-related volatility keeps the outcome from being certain.

The chance of a mutually announced extension exists, but with only a few days left and no visible confirming news, I think the Yes outcome is less likely than the market implies. My estimate is 18%, reflecting some late-stage diplomatic flexibility without strong evidence of an actual extension already in motion.

Hakainde Hichilema remains the clear favorite, with incumbency, opposition fragmentation, and the absence of an obvious national challenger all supporting another win. Even so, Zambia’s economic pain and historical anti-incumbent voting make this less than a lock, so I would price it below the market but still comfortably above even money.

Starbucks looks unlikely to exceed 41,800 global stores in its 2026 reporting, unless it materially beats its own development guidance. I put the Yes probability at 9%, well below a neutral view and slightly below the market.

A new state being admitted before Trump’s term ends looks extremely unlikely. The most realistic pathways require Congressional action, a local referendum, and sustained political coordination that is not visible in the current news flow.

The chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic reaching a 7-day moving average of 60 or higher by September 30 looks low, because recent transits are still far below that level and the political-security environment has not settled. I would put Yes at 9%, well below the current market price, though not zero if a rapid normalization deal suddenly holds.

Spain looks slightly undervalued at the current price. I put its independent chance of winning the 2030 World Cup at 17%, helped by automatic qualification, host-country advantages, and a plausible home final, though the field remains deep and highly volatile.

An impeachment of any covered cabinet member before Jan. 1, 2027 is possible but still unlikely. I estimate the chance at 3%, slightly below the market.

Fewer than 40 posts is possible, but the more likely outcome is that Musk finishes just above the threshold. The weekend timing helps the under, yet his usual activity level and ability to spike posting make No favored.

The chance that CMI officially declares the Riemann Hypothesis solved by the end of 2026 is extremely low. The market price looks generous relative to the tiny amount of time left and the historical difficulty of the problem.

Milei has a real path to reelection if inflation keeps falling and his coalition stays intact, but Argentina’s volatility makes this close to a coin flip. I lean slightly No because the race is still far away and the incumbent downside is substantial.

Democrats have a modest edge in Michigan, but the race still looks competitive enough that the current price may be a little optimistic. I would put the Democratic win probability near 55% rather than the mid-50s to high-50s implied by the market.

Democrats have a very low chance of winning the South Carolina Senate race, and the state’s long-running Republican tilt remains the dominant factor. The market’s 10.5% Yes price looks a bit generous, so I would put the true Democratic win probability slightly lower at 8%.

Google has a real but still limited path to the top spot by year-end. It would likely need a major model release and a quick leaderboard jump, so I see this as a low-probability outcome slightly above the current market price.

I put this at 7%, below the market, because the event requires not just a successful human Mars program but Elon Musk personally surviving long enough and choosing to be on an early mission. That is conceivable, but the stack of conditions is unusually demanding.