Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I estimate about an 80% chance that OpenAI reaches the public markets before Anthropic. OpenAI has the clearer and more advanced IPO signal set, but the market appears to be treating that lead as close to certain when it is still vulnerable to delay.
Analysis
OpenAI has the strongest concrete evidence of IPO preparation: a confidential S-1 has reportedly already been filed, there is talk of a public filing window in the near term, and the company has also completed a large employee share sale while posting a very large annualized revenue run rate. By contrast, the information provided on Anthropic is materially thinner and less corroborated, which makes OpenAI the clear default favorite to be first to list.
That said, this is still a timing race, not a question of whether either company will eventually go public. OpenAI’s own timeline is contested, with reports ranging from late 2026 to 2027, and that uncertainty matters because any meaningful delay gives Anthropic more time to surprise with a faster-than-expected filing or listing. OpenAI looks ahead today, but the lead is not so large that a single postponement would eliminate all risk.
Compared with the current market price, I think the market is too confident. A 93% implied probability assumes both that OpenAI stays on schedule and that Anthropic remains materially behind, and the available reporting does not justify that level of certainty. My read is that OpenAI is the likelier first mover, but the fair probability is closer to the low-80s than the mid-90s because the main failure mode is not OpenAI failing to IPO, but OpenAI slipping long enough for Anthropic to catch up or move first.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI’s IPO preparation appears real and advanced rather than speculative.
- The provided evidence gives OpenAI a much stronger public-market readiness profile than Anthropic.
Against
- OpenAI’s timing remains uncertain enough that a delay could erase its advantage.
- Anthropic’s absence from the headline narrative does not prove it is behind, only that its process is less visible.
Key drivers
- OpenAI has already taken a concrete pre-IPO step with a confidential S-1 filing, which is the clearest signal in the set.
- Anthropic does not have equally strong, well-corroborated evidence of a near-term IPO timetable in the provided reporting.
Risk factors
- OpenAI could delay into 2027 or later if valuation or market conditions deteriorate, narrowing or reversing its lead.
- Anthropic could accelerate unexpectedly if it files quietly or chooses to list in a more favorable window.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI proceeds with a successful IPO in late 2026 or early 2027 while Anthropic remains private longer, making the Yes outcome straightforward.
Most likely
OpenAI is first, but after some timing slippage rather than on the earliest rumored schedule, with Anthropic still trailing.
Worst case
OpenAI delays materially and Anthropic files and lists first, or Anthropic simply moves faster on a quieter timetable.
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