Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?
Scheffler is good enough that this is not a true longshot if the market is asking about a career grand slam, but the short runway to 2028 still keeps it far from likely. I make the Yes chance meaningfully higher than the current price, though not close to certainty.
Analysis
The exact phrasing matters here, but under the most natural reading this is a bet on Scheffler completing the set of major championships before 2028. That is a very high bar, yet Scheffler is also one of the rare golfers whose baseline level makes any major victory plausible on a year-to-year basis. If he already has three of the four majors, then one remaining win in the next two seasons is a realistic though still difficult ask; if he needs more than one, the probability falls sharply but does not collapse to single digits because he will still have multiple major starts and should remain among the favorites in most of them.
The biggest reason to lean Yes is simple quality. Scheffler has been the most reliable force in men’s golf, and major championships are one of the few settings where repeated excellence can compound over time. A player of his caliber does not need a lot of chances to find one week where the putter cooperates and the course setup fits, and the time window through the end of 2027 still gives him several chances to get the result he needs.
The biggest reason to lean No is that majors are brutally low-conversion events even for the very best players, especially when the outcome depends on a specific championship rather than any tournament win. If he needs a particular major, a single bad week, a minor injury, or a short form dip can erase the bet. Compared with the 7% Yes price, I think the market is underestimating Scheffler’s combination of peak level and remaining opportunity, but not by a huge margin unless he is already only one major away from completing the set.
Arguments
For
- Scheffler is strong enough that he can plausibly win the needed major even in a compressed time window.
- If he is already close to a career grand slam, one breakthrough week is all the bet needs.
Against
- Even elite golfers convert only a small fraction of major starts, so the time horizon is still restrictive.
- If he needs more than one specific major before 2028, the probability drops substantially.
Key drivers
- Scheffler’s elite baseline makes him one of the few players with a genuinely live chance in nearly every major.
- The number of remaining major opportunities before 2028 is limited, so the bet depends on a small number of high-variance events.
Risk factors
- The market may require multiple specific major wins, which is much harder than simply winning one more major.
- Golf majors are highly sensitive to form, course fit, and short-term variance, any of which can derail the path quickly.
Scenarios
Best case
Scheffler captures the remaining major he needs in 2027 and the market price proves far too low because it treated a near-elite certainty like a longshot.
Most likely
Scheffler contends in several majors but falls short of completing the set before the deadline, with one near-miss or a narrow loss deciding the market.
Worst case
He remains excellent but fails to get the one or more specific major wins required before 2028, leaving the No side correct.
More from this day
- cryptoPolymarket3mo
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
AI2%MKT77%Edge-75HypedAnthropic flipping Bitcoin by the end of 2026 looks extraordinarily unlikely. The valuation gap is so large that it would likely require a once-in-a-generation private funding event for Anthropic and a major Bitcoin drawdown at the same time.
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
AI25%MKT84%Edge-59HypedMy read is that Spider-Man: Brand New Day is more likely to finish above 900M domestically by August 31 than below it. I put the chance of less than 900M at about 25%, because the film is already so far along that only an unusually sharp slowdown would keep it under the line.
- PoliticsKalshi2y
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
AI74%MKT30%Edge+44Hidden GemUSAID already looks functionally dismantled, with most staff, projects, and operational authority stripped away. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves on de facto elimination or requires formal statutory abolition, but I still see a Yes outcome as more likely than not.