US real GDP growth in 2036?
I slightly favor the central growth buckets over the market, with 1.6% to 2.0% the single most likely outcome and 2.1% to 2.5% close behind. The market looks a bit too pessimistic on the middle of the distribution and a bit too confident in the low-growth tail.
Analysis
With no fresh macro news to anchor on, the best baseline is the long-run behavior of U.S. real GDP growth: it tends to cluster around roughly 2% over time, with occasional recession years pulling the number to zero or below and stronger expansion years pushing it into the mid-2s or higher. For a single calendar year as far out as 2036, the economy will still be cyclical, but the central tendency should remain near the low-2% area rather than at the extremes.
That makes the leading brackets 1.6% to 2.0% and 2.1% to 2.5% the most plausible outcomes. I slightly prefer 1.6% to 2.0% because it is consistent with a mature economy growing near trend, while 2.1% to 2.5% remains very live if productivity improves or the cycle is favorable. The recessionary 0.0% or below bucket is not trivial, but it should not dominate absent a strong reason to expect a structural downturn in 2036 specifically.
Compared with the market, I think the pricing is a little too tilted toward the tails and a little too low on the central outcomes. If the current 20% on the leading bracket is meant to represent the modal range, I would value it closer to the high-20s, which implies only a mild mispricing rather than a major one.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The 1.6% to 2.0% range is the natural center of gravity for a mature U.S. economy.
- Arguments for Yes: Market pricing appears to underweight the probability that growth lands near trend rather than in a recessionary or unusually strong year.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The exact 2036 calendar year could coincide with a downturn, which would move outcomes into the lower buckets.
- Arguments against Yes: Long-run volatility means a meaningful share of mass still belongs in faster-growth or near-zero outcomes.
Key drivers
- U.S. real growth usually reverts toward the low-2% range over long horizons.
- A recession in any single future year remains meaningful, but it should not be the base case.
- Productivity and labor-force trends are more likely to keep growth near trend than produce a persistent boom or bust.
Risk factors
- A recession, policy shock, or financial disruption in 2036 could push growth to zero or below.
- A sustained productivity surge could shift probability mass into the 3.6% to 4.0% bucket or higher.
Scenarios
Best case
The economy stays on a steady trend path, productivity is decent, and 2036 lands in the 1.6% to 2.5% neighborhood with 1.6% to 2.0% narrowly ahead.
Most likely
Growth ends up close to trend, with the bulk of probability split between 1.6% to 2.0% and 2.1% to 2.5%, and the first bracket slightly more likely.
Worst case
A recession or severe policy/financial shock hits in 2036, pushing growth to 0.0% or below and displacing the central buckets.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 28% | 20% |
| 0.0% or Below | 15% | 13% |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 25% | 12% |
| 3.6% to 4.0% | 10% | 9% |
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 22% | 8% |
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