Edges for Aug 13, 2026

I think Anthropic is more likely to IPO before OpenAI, so if the market is asking whether OpenAI goes first, my answer is no more often than yes. Recent reporting has shifted the lead toward Anthropic, while OpenAI looks more likely to wait for a better valuation and a calmer market.

Starbucks is more likely than not to finish 2026 above 41,800 global stores. The threshold is only modestly above its last known scale, and ordinary net expansion should get it there unless management materially slows growth or closes a large number of stores.

USAID already looks functionally dismantled, with most staff, projects, and operational authority stripped away. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves on de facto elimination or requires formal statutory abolition, but I still see a Yes outcome as more likely than not.

I think the chance Barron Trump receives a presidential pardon before January 2029 is quite low. Trump could theoretically pardon family if a federal case ever arose, but Barron currently has no known exposure and a pardon requires an underlying offense.

My read is that Spider-Man: Brand New Day is more likely to finish above 900M domestically by August 31 than below it. I put the chance of less than 900M at about 25%, because the film is already so far along that only an unusually sharp slowdown would keep it under the line.

Robinhood has a modest edge to finish 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers. The base is large enough that continued product-led growth and broader consumer adoption can plausibly get it over the line, though the margin is not huge.

Indiana is the most plausible destination if the Bears move, but the odds of completing that move by the 2028 opener are much lower than the market implies. The timeline, lease structure, and still-early due-diligence stage all point to a meaningful chance that nothing is finalized in time.

Claude has a credible path to 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam by year-end, especially if Anthropic ships another strong frontier model or improves test-time reasoning. I think the chance is real but a bit below the current market price.

Anthropic is still the favorite, but the lead appears narrow enough that this is not close to a lock. I think the market is pricing in too much certainty, so my estimate is meaningfully below the current implied probability.

Alibaba is a meaningful favorite because Qwen3.8-Max is already in the top tier and has fresh launch momentum, but the market appears to be pricing in too much certainty. The main reason to pull the probability below the current price is that the leaderboard is still competitive and a two-week window leaves room for another Chinese lab to overtake it.

I put the chance of the 25th Amendment being used during Trump's presidency at 13%. A temporary or procedural transfer is possible, but a true Section 4 invocation remains very unlikely given the political and institutional hurdles.

Trump is still a credible impeachment target over the next two and a half years, but the path runs through House control and a concrete triggering event. My independent estimate is 47%, which is below the current market price.

I think the chance the US formally acquires any part of Greenland before 2029 is quite low, around 7%. Trump-era rhetoric and strategic interest keep it from being zero, but a real territorial transfer would require extraordinary cooperation from Denmark and Greenland that currently looks unlikely.

I think the most likely 2035 GDP-growth bucket is 1.6% to 2.0%, with 2.1% to 2.5% a very close second. The market looks too bearish on trend-like growth and a bit too focused on downside tail risk.

I put the chance that Trump buys at least part of Greenland during this term at about 6%. The idea has clear strategic logic and Trump has shown interest before, but the political, legal, and diplomatic obstacles are overwhelming.

I estimate only a very small chance that Trump meaningfully regains U.S. control over the Panama Canal during his term. The market price looks far too high for an outcome that would require an extraordinary legal, diplomatic, or coercive break with decades of established sovereignty.

Tom Cruise has enough prestige, recognition, and late-career narrative potential to be a real outsider, but a Best Actor win still looks unlikely without a very specific awards-caliber role and campaign. I put his chance below the current market price because the nomination gate and the usual Oscar profile for this category both work against him.

China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 looks unlikely. My independent estimate is well below the market, because the remaining gap is large and the time window is too short for China to close it without an unusually strong yuan or a major US downturn.

I think a U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term remains highly unlikely, with the no-acquisition outcome near-certain. The market is directionally correct, but I still think it underestimates the institutional and diplomatic obstacles to an actual territorial transfer.

I estimate a meaningfully higher-than-market chance that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act at some point in his presidency, mainly because he has both the incentive and the rhetorical willingness to use domestic military powers in a crisis. Still, this remains an uncommon and politically fraught step, so the probability is well below a coin flip.

I put the chance of Trump resigning before the end of this term at about 6%. A voluntary resignation by a president is extraordinarily rare, and Trump’s personal and political incentives strongly favor staying in office unless an overwhelming, unavoidable crisis develops.

I put the chance at about 8%, materially below the market. Impeachment is plausible if political conditions sour, but actual removal would require a much rarer cross-party collapse in the Senate.

Elon Musk staying below 40 counted posts in this 48-hour window is possible, but it still looks like a minority outcome. His posting rate can spike quickly, and the broad counting rules make the under-40 line fairly demanding.

A U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 looks very unlikely. The key reason is that this market requires a real ground offensive intended to seize or control territory, which is far beyond the kind of escalation the U.S. typically chooses even in severe regional crises.

I think the market is pricing in more turmoil than is likely for the remainder of 2026. Absent a major scandal, health issue, or a sudden self-removal announcement, Gianni Infantino is more likely to remain FIFA president through year-end than not.

I slightly favor the central-growth band, with 1.6% to 2.0% the single most likely outcome for 2036. The market looks a bit too cautious on the middle of the distribution and a bit too spread out into the tails.

The July JOLTS print has a credible downside bias because labor demand softened in other July indicators, but the drop needed to get below 7.1M is still fairly large. I think the market is underpricing the chance of a miss, though the most likely outcome remains above the threshold.

Elon Musk is still the most likely name to hold the top spot on December 31, 2026, but the outcome is not close to guaranteed because his wealth is highly sensitive to market swings. The market is pricing an extremely high probability, and I agree with the direction but not quite as strongly as the current price implies.

Democrats have a credible path to winning both chambers, but the Senate remains the bottleneck and keeps this outcome from being the most likely result. I think the market is a bit too optimistic on the full Democratic sweep, so I land modestly below even money.

I lean slightly toward Yes because the threshold is reachable over a long remaining window and the Strait normally supports heavy traffic when conditions are even moderately stable. The main reason for caution is that geopolitical or security-related disruptions could keep the 7-day average below 60 for the rest of the year.

A Fed rate hike in 2026 looks slightly more likely than not, but the path is still highly dependent on whether inflation stays sticky while the labor market avoids further deterioration. The biggest near-term obstacle is that the September meeting has moved toward a hold, yet later meetings still leave a meaningful window for a hike.

Scheffler is good enough that this is not a true longshot if the market is asking about a career grand slam, but the short runway to 2028 still keeps it far from likely. I make the Yes chance meaningfully higher than the current price, though not close to certainty.

I think the chance of Trump having a broadly favorable 2026 is higher than the market implies, but still clearly a minority outcome. My independent estimate is 12%, reflecting a meaningful chance of policy, legal, or macro wins without assuming a full-blown landslide year.

I think the market is underestimating the chance of a meaningful Trump setback in 2026, but the bar for this event still appears high. My independent estimate is 11% for Yes, with most outcomes still landing in No.

My independent estimate is that Trump is unlikely to expand the H-1B program during this term, with the most probable path being tighter rules, higher costs, or at best a limited, highly selective adjustment rather than a true expansion. I put Yes at 18%.

I think there is a meaningful chance of a company making an AGI claim by Oct. 1, 2027, but the market is probably too optimistic. My independent estimate is below the current price because public announcement is harder than raw model progress, and the definition of AGI remains too contested for a clean, widely accepted declaration.

I put the chance of Trump presiding over the addition of a new state before his term ends at about 3%. The constitutional and political hurdles are enormous, and there is no visible legislative pathway underway.

Google is a long shot to end 2026 with the top Arena-ranked model, but it is not implausible because it still has the resources and technical base to ship a late-year leap. I would price a modestly higher chance than the market, but still well below one-in-five.

I put the chance of the Department of Education being fully eliminated by January 20, 2029 at about 10%. Trump could weaken or restructure it substantially, but outright abolition requires a level of congressional cooperation that remains unlikely.

DTF St. Louis is much more likely than not to finish with no more than one Primetime Emmy win, because its nomination strength does not necessarily translate into multiple victories. The main danger to the Yes side is a small but real path to two or more wins if it converts its directing momentum and grabs an upset in series or acting.

Keith Sonderling is the clear favorite and I put him slightly above the market because he is already running the department and has cleared a key Senate hurdle. The main remaining risk is procedural delay or an unexpected nomination reversal, not a fresh competition among the named alternatives.

My estimate is that SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 has a modest chance of launching by August 31, but the window is short and the lack of fresh confirmation keeps the odds low. I put the probability of Yes at 24 percent, slightly above the market price but still firmly a minority outcome.

Alibaba is a credible contender, but the evidence points to a tight race rather than a clear lead. I lean slightly toward Yes because Qwen has real top-tier potential and enough time remains for another push, but the margin is thin.

Ethereum has a real but limited chance of touching $3,000 before the end of 2026. I rate it modestly above the market price because ETH can rally sharply in a few months, but the remaining time window is short and the market is already signaling skepticism.

The market is pricing a high chance that Predict.fun will launch a tradable token and that the first-day FDV will clear $50M. I agree with the direction, but I am a bit more cautious than the current price because launch timing and early post-launch trading can still disappoint.

Nvidia remains the favorite to finish 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the lead is not secure enough to call it overwhelming. I am slightly below the market price because a relatively small relative move between the mega-cap leaders could change the ranking.

NVIDIA is still the clear favorite to finish August as the world’s largest company by market cap. The short remaining time window and current market pricing both point strongly to Yes, though earnings-related volatility keeps the outcome from being certain.

Samuel Alito has a meaningful chance to step down before Trump's term ends, driven by age and the strategic advantage of leaving under a Republican president. I put the probability modestly above the market, but not by much.

Elon Musk is likely to remain above $600B on August 31, but the threshold is close enough that normal Tesla-driven volatility creates a small chance of a dip below it. I put the chance of Yes at 12%, somewhat above the market price but still clearly a low-probability outcome.

Solana can move fast enough to reach 140 within a few months, but the market is right to price this as a low-probability event without a strong bullish catalyst. I see the chance as somewhat higher than the market-implied 9%, but still clearly a minority outcome.

Exactly one Supreme Court confirmation remains the single most likely outcome, but I put it a bit below the market because two confirmations are still a meaningful possibility and zero is not far behind. My independent estimate for exactly one is 41%.

I estimate a 22% chance that quarterly GDP prints above 5% at least once between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028. The long window helps, but 5% is still a very high bar that usually requires a recession rebound, major fiscal stimulus, or an unusually strong productivity/inventory surge.

I estimate a 35% chance of a recession in 2027. That is somewhat above the market, because the economy can look stable right up until lagged tightening, credit stress, or an external shock tip it into contraction.

The current price reflects a strong expectation that the next Gemini Pro model will arrive as a top-tier Arena entry, and that is broadly reasonable. I still see a meaningful chance that the first qualifying score lands just under 1480, but the balance of evidence favors Yes.

Anthropic has a small but real chance to finish second, mainly if Claude stays competitive and a rival lab fails to move ahead before the month-end snapshot. The market price looks pessimistic, but the most likely outcome is still that another lab, probably Google or OpenAI, holds second place.

Anthropic looks unlikely to finish August as the second-best Math lab because the current evidence still points to it being at or near the top of the leaderboard. I assign a low but non-trivial chance that a late change pushes it down exactly one spot.