How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
I think exactly one Supreme Court confirmation is the most likely single outcome, but the market is a bit too confident in that middle case. The aging Court makes two confirmations almost as plausible as one, while zero remains a meaningful live possibility.
Analysis
I am treating this as the U.S. Supreme Court, since the confirmation language fits that system best. Over a four-year presidential term, the count is driven almost entirely by vacancy timing, and the current bench has several justices old enough that at least one departure is a realistic expectation rather than a long shot, especially Thomas and Alito, with Roberts and Sotomayor also in ranges where retirement or health-driven turnover can matter.
That makes exactly one confirmation the modal outcome, but not by a wide margin. Vacancy outcomes on the Court are lumpy: one justice leaving is common, two is very plausible if one senior justice steps down early and another follows, while three or four would require an unusually active turnover period.
At 40% on exactly one, the market looks a little too concentrated on the middle outcome. I assign more weight than the market does to two confirmations, because the same aging profile that makes one vacancy likely also leaves a nontrivial chance that a second vacancy opens before the term ends, and I keep zero in play because strategic retirement timing can still produce a quiet term.
Arguments
For
- A single retirement or death among the current justices is a historically normal four-year outcome.
- The current age profile gives the President a credible path to exactly one confirmation without requiring an extraordinary event.
Against
- Two senior justices are old enough that the term could easily produce two confirmations instead of one.
- If no justice steps down or the only vacancy comes very late, the result becomes zero rather than one.
Key drivers
- The Court's older members make at least one vacancy during the term plausible.
- Retirements are often strategic, so confirmation counts can cluster at one or two rather than drift smoothly.
Risk factors
- If the older justices stay on the bench and health remains stable, the term could end with zero confirmations.
- If one vacancy appears early, a second vacancy later in the term becomes more likely and would move the outcome away from exactly one.
Scenarios
Best case
One senior justice retires early enough for a smooth confirmation, and no second vacancy arises before January 2029.
Most likely
The Court sees one vacancy, but the age profile keeps two-confirmation and zero-confirmation outcomes close enough that the market should be flatter than it is.
Worst case
No justice leaves the Court during the term, or multiple vacancies occur and the exact-one outcome fails.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 40% |
| 2 | 32% | 30% |
| 0 | 24% | 26% |
| 3 | 7% | 5% |
| 4 | 3% | 2% |
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