Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic currently looks more likely to reach the public markets first, so I put OpenAI first at a fairly low probability. The market’s 89% implied yes price looks too optimistic unless OpenAI’s timetable has recently accelerated behind the scenes.
Analysis
The strongest recent evidence points toward Anthropic beating OpenAI to an IPO. Anthropic has reportedly been discussing a share sale in September or early October 2026, with some reports indicating it filed confidential IPO materials earlier than OpenAI. OpenAI has also taken formal steps, but the more consistent reporting says its timetable is drifting toward 2027 rather than 2026, which makes it harder to argue that it will be first.
OpenAI still has a credible path to win the race if it chooses to accelerate, and its scale, brand, and capital needs could support a public listing once governance and structure are ready. But the recent $7 billion secondary sale at an $852 billion valuation suggests it is still comfortable staying private while it prepares, whereas Anthropic’s reported investor meetings and earlier target window look more like a company actively moving toward the market sooner. On balance, that makes OpenAI-first possible but not the most likely outcome.
Relative to the current market price of 0.89, I think this is materially mispriced on the high side. The market appears to be giving too much weight to OpenAI’s formal filing and market prominence, while underweighting the more specific timing signals favoring Anthropic. Unless there is unreported acceleration at OpenAI, the better read is that Anthropic has the cleaner and earlier path to list first.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has already taken formal SEC steps, which gives it a head start in regulatory preparation.
- Its scale and brand recognition could make it the more obvious candidate to list first if both companies decide to move quickly.
Against
- Recent reporting more consistently favors Anthropic’s IPO window arriving earlier than OpenAI’s.
- OpenAI’s signals point to patience and a possible 2027 timeline, which weakens the case that it will be first.
Key drivers
- Anthropic’s reported September or early October 2026 timing is earlier and more concrete than OpenAI’s less certain 2027-leaning path.
- OpenAI’s confidential filing shows preparation, but not urgency, especially given its large private secondary sale and lack of a public timetable.
Risk factors
- Confidential filing timelines can change quickly, and either company could pull forward or delay its debut based on market conditions.
- A sudden strategic shift at OpenAI, such as governance changes or investor pressure, could re-open a faster IPO window than current reporting suggests.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI accelerates its process, market conditions stay strong, and it uses its existing filing momentum to go public before Anthropic.
Most likely
Anthropic reaches the public markets first, while OpenAI continues preparing privately and lists later.
Worst case
Anthropic completes its share sale and IPO preparations first while OpenAI slips further into 2027 or later.
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