Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Samuel Alito has a meaningful chance to step down before Trump's term ends, driven by age and the strategic advantage of leaving under a Republican president. I put the probability modestly above the market, but not by much.
Analysis
With no fresh news indicating an imminent departure, the main question is whether Alito’s personal incentives align with the calendar. He will be 78 by the end of Trump’s term, which is old enough that retirement becomes plausible even for a long-serving justice, especially if health, workload, or family considerations start to matter. The strategic pull is also real: a conservative justice generally has the strongest reason to exit while a Republican president can appoint a successor, because waiting risks a Democratic replacement if the 2028 election changes control.
Against that, Alito has not shown any obvious public pressure to leave, and justices often remain on the bench longer than outside observers expect if they feel healthy and still enjoy the role. His ideological confidence and the institutional prestige of a lifetime appointment can reduce the urgency to retire early, particularly if he thinks the Court’s conservative majority is secure enough that timing is less important. A resignation requires not just age but a positive decision to give up power, and many justices delay that decision until there is a clearer personal reason.
The market at 57% looks a bit low to me, though not wildly off. My assessment is that the combination of age, the finite Trump window, and the possibility of a favorable replacement makes a resignation more likely than a coin flip, but the absence of any visible retirement signal keeps this from becoming a strong yes. I would characterize the market as mildly underpricing the chance of a strategic retirement rather than seriously missing it.
Arguments
For
- He will be nearing 78 by the end of the term, which is a common retirement age for justices who choose to step down.
- Retiring under Trump would maximize the chance of a like-minded successor, a powerful strategic incentive.
Against
- There is no concrete sign that Alito intends to resign, and justices often stay until there is a personal or medical reason.
- He may prefer to continue serving if he believes the conservative majority is secure regardless of timing.
Key drivers
- Alito’s age makes a resignation during the next few years materially plausible.
- A Republican presidency creates a strong incentive to time retirement before the term ends.
Risk factors
- Alito may remain on the Court if he feels healthy and still wants to influence major cases.
- If Trump’s term appears politically unstable, Alito may prefer to wait for a clearer retirement window.
Scenarios
Best case
Alito decides to retire before the 2028 election, allowing Trump to appoint a younger conservative successor and locking in a long-term replacement.
Most likely
Alito does not resign immediately, but the probability of a strategic retirement rises as the 2028 election approaches; a decision before January 2029 remains slightly more likely than not.
Worst case
He stays on the Court through the end of Trump’s term, either because he remains healthy and engaged or because he waits for a different political moment.
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