Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

The most recent polling over the past week has been unfavorable for Netanyahu’s personal and party position. A Channel 13 poll reported by Al-Monitor showed Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar edging Likud 23 to 22 seats, with Eisenkot beating Netanyahu 46% to 36% on who is better suited to serve as prime minister; the same report noted that a later Kan poll tied Yashar and Likud at 23 seats each, while the broader coalition-opposition split still left Netanyahu short of a clear governing path. A separate Jerusalem Post report on the Channel 13 numbers likewise said Eisenkot’s party overtook Likud for the first time and that nearly half of respondents viewed Eisenkot as more suitable for the premiership.

Coalition arithmetic remains the key issue, and it cuts both ways for a Netanyahu bet. The latest Israeli polling summaries still show a fragmented map rather than an automatic anti-Netanyahu majority, with one Maariv poll putting Netanyahu’s bloc around 50 seats and the broader opposition ahead but not necessarily able to govern without difficult coordination or Arab-party support. At the same time, the Bennett-Lapid alignment and Eisenkot’s rise make it easier than before for the opposition to present a plausible alternative coalition, which is exactly the kind of organizing problem that hurt Netanyahu in previous cycles.

The broader political environment also does not favor a clean Netanyahu comeback. His government’s decision to defy a Supreme Court ruling over a media regulator has reignited the constitutional-crisis narrative, which gives his opponents a fresh campaign theme and reinforces public polarization. But Netanyahu can still benefit from security-first messaging, from any rally-around-the-flag effect, and from the fact that Israeli elections often turn on late coalition bargaining rather than raw pre-election polling. That combination keeps his win case alive, just not as the most likely outcome.