Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2026 looks highly likely to be another exceptionally warm year, but the evidence still points more toward a top-five finish than a new all-time record. I think the market is overstating the odds that the late-year El Niño boost is enough to beat 2024.
Analysis
The latest global temperature reports point to an extremely hot first half of 2026, but not yet a runaway case for the all-time crown. NOAA says January through June 2026 was the third-warmest such period in its record, and June itself ranked as the second-warmest June globally, with ocean heat especially intense. Copernicus reports the same basic picture: June 2026 was the second-warmest June worldwide and the extra-polar ocean set a June SST record, which confirms that the climate system is still carrying a large amount of stored heat.
The main argument for a Yes outcome is the rapidly strengthening El Niño. NOAA’s July 9 advisory says El Niño is already in place and should intensify through the end of 2026, while WMO’s latest seasonal outlook expects a strong El Niño during July through September and widespread above-normal temperature probabilities across much of the globe. That matters because a strong late-year El Niño can materially lift annual global averages, especially when ocean temperatures are already unusually high and the land surface is also trending warm.
Even so, the bar for becoming the hottest year on record is very high. 2024 already set the record, and 2025 remained in the same very warm cluster rather than pulling away from it. NOAA’s own current annual outlook only says 2026 is very likely to land among the five warmest years, which is a strong signal for persistent warmth but not a strong signal for a record-breaking finish. To beat 2024, 2026 needs a second half that is not merely hot, but hot enough to overcome the absence of a full-year record-level start; that is possible, but I think it is still the minority outcome.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: El Niño is now developing and is forecast to strengthen quickly, which can add meaningful warmth to the second half of the year.
- Arguments for Yes: June 2026 set record or near-record ocean heat markers, suggesting the climate baseline is already elevated before the strongest El Niño impacts fully arrive.
- Arguments for Yes: January through June 2026 is already third-highest on record, so 2026 does not need a miracle to become a top contender.
- Arguments for Yes: The long-term warming trend keeps compressing the gap between near-record years, making a new annual record increasingly plausible.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: NOAA’s current outlook only says 2026 is very likely to rank among the five warmest years, which is weaker than a true record signal.
- Arguments against Yes: 2024 already holds the record, so 2026 must outperform a very high full-year benchmark rather than just beat a single hot month or season.
- Arguments against Yes: 2025 was extremely warm but still did not overtake 2024, showing that the record has a meaningful cushion.
- Arguments against Yes: A lot depends on how much of the El Niño warmth arrives in time to affect the annual mean, and a late surge may be too late to fully catch the leader.
Key drivers
- The strength and timing of the 2026 El Niño peak will likely be the single biggest determinant of the final annual ranking.
- Persistent record-high ocean temperatures can amplify global warmth for months after the initial ENSO shift.
- The shape of the July through December temperature anomalies will decide whether 2026 can close the gap on 2024.
- The size of the historical gap between 2024 and the rest of the warmest cluster appears small enough to matter, but still not trivial.
Risk factors
- If El Niño peaks weaker than expected or fades early, 2026 likely settles short of the record.
- If the second half of 2026 is hot but not exceptional enough, the year can still finish in the top five without taking first place.
- Any unexpected cooling in major ocean basins could blunt the annual average even if land temperatures stay elevated.
- The market may be overreacting to strong summer warmth and underweighting the amount of annual averaging still left to do.
Scenarios
Best case
El Niño strengthens faster and lasts longer than expected, ocean heat stays extreme through late 2026, and the final annual mean edges just above 2024 for a narrow new record.
Most likely
2026 stays extraordinarily warm and finishes among the warmest years on record, but the full-year average comes up short of 2024 and lands in the top five, probably near the top three.
Worst case
The warm start to 2026 fades into a merely very warm but not record-shattering second half, leaving the year behind 2024 and likely outside the top spot.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 30% |
| No | 85% | 71% |
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