Edges for Jul 10, 2026

Evil Dead Burn looks more likely to finish above $20 million than below it, even with Moana in the same frame. The current market is pricing a sub-$20 million opening as almost certain, but the available tracking and franchise comps point to a meaningfully higher opening.

USAID has already been functionally eliminated as an independent agency (shuttered July 1, 2025 and folded into State); I assess a ~99% chance it will be counted as eliminated during Trump’s term.

I assess ~35% chance the UK Prime Minister (Keir Starmer) will be the first G7 leader to leave office; the market at ~98% for that outcome looks severely overstated given scheduled election timing and relative stability of other leaders.

I think Yes is materially more likely than the market price suggests. Recent posting pace implies that a 48-hour window should usually stay under 40 unless Musk triggers another sudden burst.

I think the market is overstating the chance of a new pandemic in this window. There are real outbreak risks, but the current evidence looks more like serious regional or multi-country emergencies than the kind of fast-moving global event that would justify a yes.

Independent assessment: very unlikely the Chicago team will relocate to a new Illinois location by the first game of the 2028 regular season; Indiana is the overwhelmingly more probable outcome.

I assign a 55% probability that the bear case for Trump — a materially bad 2026 marked by significant legal defeats, policy backfires, and destabilizing geopolitical/economic consequences — will occur before 2027. The current market (Yes 12%) appears to underprice these correlated risks.

Independent assessment: extremely unlikely — I assign a low probability that Barron Trump will receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029, because there is no known federal legal exposure and pardons require either an underlying federal offense or a rare, politically costly preemptive pardon.

I assess a low probability that any U.S. quarterly real GDP will annualize above 5% in Q1 2025–Q4 2028: this would require an unusually large, concentrated surge from fiscal, inventory, or measurement effects that current macro fundamentals do not support.

Independent assessment: **~18%** probability that the Fed will cut rates by more than 25bps at the December 8, 2027 meeting — a low but non-negligible chance driven by tail recession/disinflation scenarios; current market (59% Yes) looks materially stretched to me.

I assess a substantially below-market chance that Justice Samuel Alito will resign during Trump's term: I estimate ~27% that he leaves the Court before 2029-01-20 despite heavy market speculation and recent false reports.

There is a meaningful chance the Trump “bull case” manifests in 2026 — driven by continued equity momentum, concentrated corporate wins, and reshoring investment — but substantial macro, geopolitical, and valuation headwinds make it a coin-flip-ish outcome. My independent probability: 40%.

Acting AG Todd Blanche has a meaningful incumbency edge, but political and confirmation risks plus strong interest in Lee Zeldin make Blanche less than a foregone conclusion; I assess a ~46% chance Blanche becomes Trump’s next confirmed Attorney General.

I assess a better-than-even (65%) probability that the 2025–2028 average annual measles case count in the U.S. will be at or above ~2,288 cases/year, driven by the 2025 record, a large 2026 mid‑year total, persistent transmission chains, and weakened/fragmented public‑health countermeasures.

Independent assessment: extremely unlikely — I put the probability that Trump will ‘take back’ the Panama Canal during his term at 3%. Legal, diplomatic, logistical, and domestic political barriers make a forcible or de facto seizure highly improbable within the 2025–2029 window.

I assess a 62% chance Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029 — normalization is more likely than not given overlapping security incentives, Trump administration leverage, and a recent historical pattern of Arab-Israeli rapprochement, even though the Palestinian question and Saudi domestic constraints remain significant obstacles.

I assess a 72% probability that Jay Clayton will be confirmed as Trump's next Director of National Intelligence before January 20, 2029 — likely after some delay or procedural friction but ultimately prevailing over alternative loyalists.

I assess a better-than-even chance that NYC will register a modest population increase of 0.01%–0.99% from July 2025 to July 2027, driven primarily by the 2025 housing completion surge and a strong office leasing rebound, but with meaningful downside tail risks from demographic structure and measurement/timing uncertainty.

I assess a roughly 25% chance Scottie Scheffler wins the U.S. Open at least once before 2028 (thereby completing the career grand slam). This reflects his elite status, multiple remaining attempts, and course-agnostic consistency versus the high variance of U.S. Opens.

Chicago is a live contender and looks underpriced at the current yes price, but the race is still tight enough that I would not call them a favorite. I make the White Sox roughly a 44% proposition to win the AL Central.

I assign a 2% probability that Trump will succeed in buying at least part of Greenland during a presidential term — legally and politically this is virtually impossible, but a tiny tail risk remains via extraordinary geopolitical or semantic workarounds.

I assess a low but non-negligible probability — about 12% — that Section IV of the 25th Amendment will be used during Trump's presidency; the legal and political hurdles make invocation unlikely, but age- and event-driven tail scenarios keep the risk above zero.

Simu Liu as Shang-Chi looks effectively locked in for Avengers: Doomsday. The official Disney movie page and Disney's cast announcement both list him, so I put the Yes chance at 98%.

I assess a very high probability that there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term — about 96% — with only a tiny tail chance of an outright purchase or transfer of sovereignty.

United Russia is still the likeliest party to post the biggest net seat increase, but this is not a lock because the market measures change from the current Duma rather than simple seat plurality. The latest campaign and polling coverage still favors United Russia, though New People is the most plausible spoiler if there is a meaningful reshuffle.

I assign a 9% probability that the United States will acquire any part of Greenland before 2029. Diplomatic, legal, and political barriers make acquisition unlikely within the 2.5-year window despite high-profile presidential rhetoric and strategic incentives.

I think the LCK still has a live but diminished shot, with Hanwha Life Esports being the only remaining representative. My estimate is 31% for Yes, below the current market price because BLG’s win over HLE and the elimination of T1 materially reduce the LCK’s path to the title.

Independent assessment is that it is more likely than not the House will pass articles of impeachment against President Trump before Jan 20, 2029 — I assign a 72% chance that he will be impeached during this term.

Google looks slightly favored because it is currently first on the Math leaderboard, but the lead is thin and Anthropic remains very close behind. I would price Google at a modest edge rather than a lock.

I assess a low probability that Trump will formally invoke the Insurrection Act during his presidency before the contract cutoff — my independent estimate is 12% (Yes). This reflects the legal constraints, historical rarity, likely alternatives, and high political/military cost of invocation.

I think the market is somewhat overpriced on Yes. The Strait is still operational and the IMF now assumes reopening begins in mid-July, but the latest week brought renewed attacks, tanker turnbacks, and official traffic counts that still look far below the 60-call threshold.

Ukraine is still hitting Crimea hard with drones and long-range strikes, but the recent news does not show any actual territorial capture. I rate a Yes outcome at 2%, far below the market’s current 10.5% price.

NVIDIA is still the favorite to finish July as the world’s largest company, but the lead over Apple is only mid-single digits and there are several catalysts left before month-end. I’d price Yes at 82%.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that President Trump will resign before the end of his term — about 12% — reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignation tempered by Trump's elevated legal and political tail risks.

The case currently looks stronger for a conviction than the market price suggests, mainly because prosecutors appear to have substantial physical, video, and inculpatory statement evidence. Still, this is a capital case with real timing and procedural risks, so I would not push the probability much above the mid-to-high 50s.

I think Yes is more likely than the market price suggests. McGregor is the centerpiece of the card, and in a live UFC headliner his surname is the kind of shorthand commentators repeat constantly, so 20+ mentions looks very reachable.

Toy Story 5 looks likely to fall below $19 million in its fourth domestic weekend. The current run rate, holiday distortion from last weekend, and the arrival of Moana make a sub-$19 million frame more probable than not.

Mbappe is a live Golden Ball contender because France are still advancing and he has produced elite tournament numbers, but the race is crowded and he is not the clear statistical or narrative lock. I would price his yes outcome a bit below the market at 39%.

NVIDIA remains the favorite to finish 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the lead is not so wide that the outcome is close to locked in. I estimate a 61% chance of Yes, a bit below the market’s current pricing because the upside case is strong but the year-end ranking is still vulnerable to volatility, policy risk, and a re-rating of Apple or Alphabet.

I assess that OpenAI is more likely to IPO before Anthropic by 2040 — my independent probability is 70% that OpenAI will be the first of the two to complete an IPO before 2040.

I assess a 20% chance Elon Musk personally visits Mars before Aug 1, 2099 — technically plausible given SpaceX timelines and Musk’s risk profile, but limited by his denials, managerial role, health/mortality risk, and Moon-first priorities.

A July rate cut is plausible but still not the base case. I make the chance of a decrease 34%, which is above the current market price but still leaves a hold as more likely because inflation is not yet fully subdued.

Keith Sonderling is the clear favorite given his Acting Secretary role and formal nomination, but I assess somewhat less than the market — about an 82% chance — because of Senate uncertainty and turnover risk over the remainder of the term.

I assess a low probability that the Department of Education will be fully eliminated by 20 Jan 2029 — despite Trump’s unpredictability, legislative, legal, and programmatic barriers make outright abolition unlikely.

Very unlikely — I assess a 3% independent probability that the United States will acquire any part of Canada before 2029. Political, legal, military, and diplomatic barriers make transfer of Canadian territory highly implausible in the given timeframe.

I assess Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the single most likely next Cabinet departure (independent probability ~34%) because his profile combines high public controversy, substantive policy conflicts with powerful institutions (FDA, public health community), and a track record of friction inside the administration — although the market is not far off and may be underpricing those risks.

Ethereum can plausibly reach $3,000 in 2026, but it still needs an unusually strong second-half rally from a depressed starting point. I rate the Yes outcome below 1-in-4 because the current setup is supportive but not yet strong enough to justify a high-confidence breakout.

I think a no-meeting outcome by September 30 is still the minority case, but it is more plausible than the market price suggests because the diplomacy is active yet highly unstable. The balance of recent reporting points to continued mediation, not a clear path to a new senior-level round.

Nigel Farage looks overwhelmingly likely to win the Clacton by-election. The combination of a deeply favorable seat, a strong personal base, and major parties refusing to stand makes the No outcome look like a long shot.

I think Yes is unlikely, around 4%. The recent news shows the administration is willing to take direct stakes in strategic firms in general, but there is still no concrete indication of a binding SpaceX equity deal, and the only recent SpaceX discussion is about donating stock to Trump Accounts, which would not count as government ownership.

Abiy Ahmed is overwhelmingly likely to remain prime minister. The June 2026 election returned a decisive Prosperity Party majority, and the latest official and state reporting still shows Abiy functioning as the incumbent prime minister after the vote.

Messi remains a live favorite because he is currently on top of the Golden Boot race and Argentina are still in the tournament, but the edge is narrow and the remaining games are not enough to make this close to certain. I make him a modest favorite, not the market leader’s current pricing.

The market is pricing a real escalation risk, but a true U.S. invasion of Iran by December 31, 2026 still looks unlikely. Recent strikes and sharp rhetoric raise the odds of more military action, yet the threshold here is a ground offensive intended to seize or control territory, which remains a much bigger leap than the current conflict pattern.

Spain are the deserved favorite because they have been nearly impenetrable all tournament and Belgium just lost a key midfielder. I think the market is a little low on Spain, but the knockout format keeps the upset risk meaningful.

I lean slightly bearish on this market at 32%. Extended looks credible enough that a launch could eventually command a strong valuation, but the bigger uncertainty is whether a publicly transferable token actually launches soon enough, and there is still no clear public commitment to a specific TGE timetable.

I put the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 slightly below the market, at 43%. The bill has real momentum, but the Senate still has to clear a filibuster-level hurdle amid unresolved ethics fights and a tight summer calendar.

Given the active House floor debate and public pressure, impeachment by the House is plausible; however, removal via a two-thirds Senate conviction remains unlikely. My independent estimate that Trump will be both impeached and removed before his term ends is 14%.

I think Yes is slightly more likely than the market implies. Spain’s defensive profile lowers the chaos a bit, but a live quarterfinal broadcast still has a high enough baseline of goal-language that 60 mentions looks achievable.

Marine Le Pen remains a serious contender and the latest polling surge after her court ruling keeps her path to victory alive. Still, the long runway to April and May 2027, plus runoff dynamics and legal volatility, make a win less likely than a simple polling read suggests.

Trump attending zero World Cup matches is still possible, but the latest reporting points more toward a July 19 final appearance than a full no-show. My estimate for zero attendance is 9%, meaning the more likely outcome is that he attends at least one match.