Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I assess that OpenAI is more likely to IPO before Anthropic by 2040 — my independent probability is 70% that OpenAI will be the first of the two to complete an IPO before 2040.
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**
OpenAI and Anthropic are both private, well‑funded AI companies with different histories, governance choices, and commercial trajectories. Over the next 14+ years both face the same macro drivers (capital markets cycles, regulation of advanced AI, enterprise adoption), but they differ in *current commercial traction, strategic partnerships, and governance structures* — which will materially affect timing of any IPO.
Key observations informing my independent assessment:
- *Commercial traction and revenue maturity favor OpenAI.* ChatGPT and related API/enterprise products have driven rapid monetization and a large, visible revenue stream; that creates both incentive and plausibly sufficient financial metrics to support a public offering earlier. Public readiness usually correlates with repeatable revenue, customer concentration, and visible growth — areas where OpenAI currently has a lead.
- *Strategic corporate ties lower both friction and uncertainty for OpenAI.* Deep partnerships with a major cloud/industrial partner provide distribution, enterprise reach, and credibility that can smooth an IPO process (e.g., reference customers, channel pipelines, underwriting comfort). Anthropic has important partnerships too, but its commercial footprint has generally been smaller and later to market.
- *Governance and mission differences are a mixed influence.* OpenAI's unique dual-entity structure and capped‑profit model could complicate or delay a conventional IPO if leadership prioritizes control or alignment over liquidity. Anthropic's stated safety emphasis could similarly slow a public listing if management prefers private research runway. Governance constraints therefore cut both ways, but are currently a stronger potential brake on Anthropic — Anthropic has signaled careful, safety-first posture which could translate into a longer private runway.
- *Employee and investor liquidity pressure favors an earlier OpenAI IPO.* Rapid valuation increases, significant employee option pools, and large outside investors typically produce pressure for exits or liquidity events. OpenAI's scale and public profile create greater and earlier liquidity pressure.
- *Regulatory risk is material and ambiguous.* By 2040 robust regulation of advanced models is plausible. Regulation could delay both firms' IPOs, but regulators may treat larger, more public-facing providers (OpenAI) as the first subject of scrutiny — which could either delay OpenAI or force earlier transparency and thus incentivize an earlier IPO depending on management strategy.
Balancing these factors, I judge that OpenAI's lead in commercialization and stronger incentives for liquidity make it more likely to IPO before Anthropic over this long horizon. I assign a 70% probability that OpenAI will be the first to complete an IPO by 2040 (i.e., OpenAI before Anthropic), and 30% that Anthropic will be first or OpenAI never goes public before Anthropic does.
**Stage 2 — Market calibration (look at current market prices):**
The market currently prices "Yes" at ~78%, somewhat above my independent 70% estimate. Possible reasons for the market premium above my view:
- *Momentum/recency bias and visibility:* Retail and spec traders often overweight the firm with the more visible consumer product (ChatGPT). That can push markets to overestimate the dominant company's likelihood to reach IPO first.
- *Information asymmetry / private knowledge:* Some institutional participants or insiders may have non‑public signals (timelines, investor conversations) that justify a higher price; my public‑information model cannot incorporate those.
- *Binary framing and long horizon anchoring:* With a long deadline (2040), many traders anchor on current dominance and underweight governance/regulatory frictions that could delay a listing.
Given these, the market is plausible but possibly a bit optimistic about OpenAI's advantage. I view market pricing as within a reasonable range but leaning toward overconfidence in OpenAI's inevitability. If you seek to trade, a small contrarian position favoring Anthropic (No) could be justified if you believe governance and safety priorities will keep Anthropic private longer or if OpenAI's governance/regulatory complications substantially slow its path to a classic IPO.
Overall confidence and uncertainty note: There is substantial model and scenario uncertainty over a 14+ year horizon. My 70% is a best‑effort probabilistic judgment from currently observable public signals, not a certainty.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has stronger, earlier commercial monetization (consumer product + APIs) which creates visible metrics investors demand for IPO readiness.
- Large strategic partnerships give OpenAI easier enterprise distribution and underwriting confidence for public investors.
- Employee and investor liquidity pressures are stronger at OpenAI given its scale and public profile — these typically push companies toward earlier exits.
- Market leadership and brand dominance favor faster regulatory and customer validation, increasing IPO feasibility sooner.
Against
- OpenAI's atypical governance (nonprofit oversight + capped returns) could complicate a standard IPO structure or delay a public listing until legal/structural questions are resolved.
- Anthropic’s safety‑first posture and investor agreements could lead its management to prioritize long private runway, but conversely could also delay OpenAI if safety/regulatory scrutiny focuses on larger providers first.
- Potential for significant AI regulation before a viable IPO window appears, which could postpone both companies' IPO timelines well beyond near‑term expectations.
- Either company could pursue alternative liquidity routes (direct listings, large secondary transactions, acquisitions) that change the timing calculus or remove the traditional IPO trigger.
Key drivers
- Current commercial traction and revenue growth (productization: ChatGPT, APIs, enterprise licenses)
- Governance structure and control preferences (OpenAI LP + nonprofit vs Anthropic's governance choices)
- Investor composition and liquidity pressure (outside investors, employee option pools)
- Strategic partnerships and cloud/commercial relationships that ease enterprise adoption
- Regulatory environment and potential AI-specific disclosure/oversight requirements
Risk factors
- Major regulatory interventions that delay or prevent conventional IPOs for advanced AI firms
- Corporate governance choices or shareholder arrangements that intentionally keep a firm private longer
- Macro IPO market cycles — prolonged public market downturns could defer both companies’ listings
- Simultaneous or near‑simultaneous IPOs creating ambiguity about "which first," or a tied outcome
- Non‑public strategic decisions (acquisition, conversion to different corporate form) altering expected timelines
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI accelerates enterprise monetization, navigates governance questions into a clean corporate structure, and chooses an IPO window in the 2028–2035 range. Investor and employee pressure, combined with attractive public markets, lead OpenAI to list first — a smooth process validated by strong subscription and enterprise metrics.
Most likely
OpenAI remains the most probable first IPO candidate due to current commercial lead and investor/employee liquidity pressure; however governance, regulatory, or market‑cycle shocks could push a listing past Anthropic, making the race closer than present headlines imply. I expect OpenAI to IPO first in most plausible futures, but timelines are highly flexible.
Worst case
Regulators impose strict disclosure, safety, or market‑access rules for advanced model providers that either slow or block conventional IPO pathways; governance constraints or a management decision to keep control private causes OpenAI to remain private while Anthropic pursues a different exit or both forgo IPOs, resulting in Anthropic being first or neither IPOing before 2040.
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