Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

The biggest piece of evidence is that the election question is no longer about whether Abiy can plausibly retain power, but whether the formal post-election process produces an unexpected break from the incumbent. Ethiopia’s National Election Board announced the final results of the June 1, 2026 election on June 21, and state reporting says the Prosperity Party won a decisive majority in both the federal parliament and regional councils. That result gives the governing party the mandate to form the next federal government, which is exactly the institutional path that normally returns the incumbent party leader to the premiership.

Recent reporting from the past week still treats Abiy as the sitting prime minister, not as an outgoing figure. On July 6 and July 7, state media reported that he was appearing in parliament, answering questions, and framing the recently completed election as a demonstration of democratic maturity. The Office of the Prime Minister’s own public materials also continue to describe the office as operating under Abiy Ahmed. That matters because this market resolves to the person who officially assumes office after the election, and there is no sign of a resignation, disqualification, or rival transition plan that would interrupt the normal succession path.

The main reason not to give this 100 percent is that Ethiopia’s politics can be disrupted by security problems, internal party bargaining, or a delayed or altered parliamentary process. But those are tail risks rather than central scenarios right now. The market already prices in a very high probability at 95.1 percent, and that is broadly consistent with the official election outcome, the incumbent’s continued public role, and the lack of any credible competing successor emerging in the immediate post-election period.