Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia is still the likeliest party to post the biggest net seat increase, but this is not a lock because the market measures change from the current Duma rather than simple seat plurality. The latest campaign and polling coverage still favors United Russia, though New People is the most plausible spoiler if there is a meaningful reshuffle.
Analysis
As of July 10, 2026, the State Duma election is officially set for September 18 to 20, 2026, and the campaign has already moved into an active phase. Recent reporting shows United Russia holding a high-profile pre-election congress and rolling out a ticket built around Kremlin loyalty, including figures such as Sergei Lavrov, Sergei Sobyanin, an injured Ukraine war veteran, and a war correspondent, which is a strong sign that the party is being treated as the central vehicle for regime mobilization rather than a vulnerable incumbent.
The latest polling and party-rating data still place United Russia at the top. WCIOM’s late-June and early-July material shows United Russia at 33.8% in its party rating table, while New People is around 12%, the CPRF around 10.7%, LDPR around 9.4%, and A Just Russia around 5.7%; WCIOM’s own July 2 review says the main intrigue is second place, not the top slot. That matters because it implies the field below United Russia is fragmented, and the biggest alternative challenger is not an opposition breakthrough but a system-party reshuffle, which is usually less threatening to the ruling party’s seat position.
The key complication is that this market is about which party gains the most seats relative to the current Duma, not simply which party wins the most seats outright. United Russia’s current faction is still by far the largest at 312 members, while CPRF has 56, A Just Russia 28, LDPR 21, and New People 15, so the ruling party starts from a much higher base and needs only a modest recovery in district and list seats to post the largest net increase. At the same time, recent Reuters coverage still says United Russia is likely to secure a large majority despite war fatigue, fuel shortages, and a softer approval environment, which keeps the Yes side favored but leaves real room for a smaller party, especially New People, to outperform on seat gain if the vote shifts more sharply than expected.
Arguments
For
- United Russia is the dominant current faction with 312 members, so even a modest recovery from its current baseline could produce the biggest net seat increase.
- Reuters reporting still describes United Russia as likely to secure a large majority, helped by Putin’s backing and a tame parliamentary opposition.
- WCIOM still shows United Russia leading party support and says the main contest is for second place, which suggests fragmented challengers below it.
Against
- Because the market is about net seat gains, United Russia’s very large starting point makes it harder for the party to post the biggest increase than for a smaller rival.
- WCIOM’s latest table puts New People ahead of the other non-UR parties in support, so it has the clearest path to a larger seat swing from a low base.
- Recent reports note softer Putin approval and economic stress from fuel shortages, which could reduce United Russia’s ability to expand its seat count.
Key drivers
- Putin’s visible alignment with United Russia in the campaign should boost administrative and media mobilization.
- The opposition field remains weak and fragmented, so any swing is more likely to be absorbed by system parties than to create a true anti-Kremlin breakthrough.
- United Russia’s current seat stock is so large that a modest rebound can still outpace the gains of smaller parties.
Risk factors
- If current polling softness persists, United Russia could end up flat or even lose seats rather than gain them.
- New People could convert its relative polling momentum into the biggest increase from a much smaller base.
- A more pronounced anti-incumbent swing in single-mandate districts could let another party post the largest net gain even if United Russia remains the overall winner.
Scenarios
Best case
United Russia uses Putin’s backing, high-profile candidates, and incumbent control to add enough seats from its current 312-member base that no other party comes close to matching its net increase.
Most likely
United Russia remains the safest bet to finish with the largest net seat gain, but the margin is modest because it begins from a dominant base and the main competitive energy appears to be flowing into the race for second place.
Worst case
United Russia’s softer approval and weaker vote share translate into a flat or negative seat change, while New People or another system party posts a larger gain from a much smaller starting point.
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