Edges for Sep 3, 2026

It is overwhelmingly likely that Spider-Man: Brand New Day will finish below 940 million domestically by September 30, 2026. That threshold is far beyond what even the biggest superhero films have typically reached, especially within just two months of release.

Starbucks is likely to clear 41,800 global stores in 2026 if it continues even a modest net opening pace. My independent estimate is materially above the market, because the threshold is not especially ambitious relative to Starbucks’ existing scale and historical expansion.

I put the chance of Barron Trump receiving a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029 at very low, around 2%. There is no public evidence of any federal exposure, pending case, or even credible discussion that would make a pardon likely or operationally relevant.

I estimate Boeing is materially more likely than the market implies to finish 2026 below 620 commercial deliveries. The threshold is demanding and requires sustained near-maximum production across multiple programs for the full year, which Boeing has historically struggled to achieve consistently.

Samuel Alito is still plausible to step down before Trump’s term ends, but the most likely outcome is that he remains on the Court through January 2029. I would price this at about 28%, well below the current market implied probability.

2026 has a real chance to finish near the top of the record, but being the single hottest year is still a demanding threshold. The market looks somewhat too optimistic, because a new annual record requires both persistent warmth and unfavorable year-to-year variability to line up in 2026’s favor.

I think the chance Trump is impeached before January 20, 2029 is materially lower than the market implies. Impeachment is possible given his history and the volatility of congressional politics, but it still requires a specific alignment of House control, scandal severity, and party incentives that is not the base case.

Arsenal look like a credible title contender, but a league win is still far from the most likely outcome in a competition with multiple elite rivals and high variance over a full season. I think the market is pricing them too aggressively, so my estimate is below 50% and closer to the low-to-mid 20s.

I think OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to IPO first, but not nearly as certain as the market implies. The governance complexity at OpenAI makes this far from a lock, and Anthropic’s cleaner structure gives it a credible path to go public earlier.

Anthropic is a serious contender to finish first, but the market looks too confident given how quickly leaderboard positions can change and how close the competition usually is among frontier labs. I would price it materially below the current market, with a moderate chance rather than a dominant one.

I think Democrats are favored to win the House in 2026, but not nearly as strongly as the market price suggests. The combination of midterm backlash dynamics, narrow Republican defensive depth, and the historical tendency for the out-of-power party to gain seats makes a Democratic takeover more likely than not, though redistricting, candidate quality, and national conditions could still keep Republicans in control.

I think the market is pricing this as an extremely unlikely “bad year” for Trump, but the odds of a meaningful adverse year are materially higher than 4%. My independent estimate is 22%, reflecting the real chance of legal, health, political, or economic setbacks accumulating in 2026.

I see the chance of the U.S. acquiring any part of Canada before 2029 as extremely small, on the order of 1% or less. The current market price looks far too high for an outcome that would require an extraordinary geopolitical rupture and Canadian consent or defeat.

I think Yes is more likely than not, but the market is probably pricing it a bit too confidently. The SPR is close enough to 280 million barrels that a few sizable weekly draws would do it, yet the actual pace of SPR movement is usually uneven and not guaranteed.

I think the market is underestimating the chance of at least one murder conviction, but the insanity and mental-health defense still makes this far from likely. My estimate is 31% yes, with no still the more probable outcome because a not-guilty-by-reason-of-mental-illness result or other procedural ending remains very plausible.

NVIDIA has a credible path to remain the world’s largest company by market cap through the end of 2026, but the position is far from locked in. I estimate a moderate-leaning Yes probability because its AI leadership is powerful, while valuation and concentration risk leave room for a rival to overtake it.

I think the chance is very low, around 3%, that the U.S. adds a new state before Trump’s term ends. The market’s 12% looks materially too high given the constitutional hurdles and the limited time window.

Scottie Scheffler is good enough to make this plausible, but the bar is still high because he must capture both remaining majors before 2028. I make it meaningfully above the market, at 22%, because his win equity in any major is elite and he has multiple chances left.

USAID is meaningfully at risk of being gutted or restructured, but full elimination is still a higher bar because it likely requires either sustained executive action that survives legal challenges or congressional acquiescence. I գնահատestimate a moderate Yes probability, higher than the market’s price but far from certain.

I think a Trump administration buying any part of Greenland is very unlikely, but not impossible. The realistic probability is low single digits, well below the current market price.

I գնահատimate a low-single-digit to high-single-digit chance that the United States formally acquires control of any part of Greenland before 2029. The political and legal barriers are enormous, but the phrasing is broad enough that a narrow security or basing arrangement makes this possible in a very small tail scenario.

Olivia Rodrigo has the kind of profile that can absolutely contend for Album of the Year if the eligible album lands well and is widely embraced by voters. Still, the award is highly competitive, and without clear evidence of a dominant campaign or cultural peak yet, I think the market is a bit optimistic on a win.

Morgan Wallen is still a strong contender for Billboard's year-end top artist in 2026, but the race is not locked up this far before year-end. I see him as the favorite, though the probability is a bit lower than the market price because a lot can change in the remaining months.

I think the market is somewhat overconfident on Yes, but the base case still leans toward a launch with a valuation above $50M. My estimate is 76% for Yes, below the current market price but still clearly favored.

My independent estimate is that Trump has only a very small chance of being both impeached and removed before the end of his term. Impeachment is plausible in a hostile political environment, but Senate removal remains the hard, historically rare step.

I put this at 14% yes. Trump could escalate rhetoric or pressure Panama, but actually “taking back” the canal would require an extraordinary geopolitical break with Panama and likely the broader international order.

My independent estimate is that Trump has a meaningful but still limited chance of hitting the implied approval threshold in 2026, closer to the high teens than the mid-single digits. The market looks too dismissive of a one-year approval surge, but the bar is high enough that No remains the likelier outcome.

Robinhood can still clear 30.2 million funded customers in 2026, but it needs a meaningfully faster second-half pace than it has shown so far. I put the Yes probability at 39%, modestly above the market price.

Marine Le Pen still has a plausible path to the presidency if she remains eligible, reaches the runoff, and benefits from a fragmented anti-RN field. However, legal uncertainty and the historically difficult runoff barrier for her make a win more likely than not to fail, so I put her below the market price at 24%.

I make the chance of no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term very high, around 94%. The market appears to be pricing in some non-trivial acquisition scenario that would require an extraordinary diplomatic and constitutional chain of events that is still very unlikely to materialize.

Bad Bunny is still a very strong candidate for Spotify’s 2026 top artist, but the current price seems to assume an unusually high level of certainty. I think he remains favored, though not as overwhelmingly as the market implies.

A Trump resignation before the end of the term looks unlikely. The default path is that he serves out the term unless there is an extraordinary health, legal, or political shock, and I make the Yes probability well below the market.

The market is heavily tilted toward no Fed cuts in 2026, and that remains the most likely outcome if inflation is still sticky and the labor market is not deteriorating sharply. Still, with several FOMC meetings left in the year, the chance of at least one cut is meaningfully higher than the market implies.

I assign a very low probability that Elon Musk personally visits Mars before August 1, 2099. The main reason is not technical feasibility alone, but the extreme age and mortality constraint: by then Musk would be far beyond any plausible travel age unless there is extraordinary life extension.

Trump has a meaningful history of turning on allies when he feels criticized or betrayed, and Tucker Carlson is prominent enough that any falling-out could quickly become public and personal. Still, Tucker is not a routine Trump target, so the market’s high Yes price looks a bit aggressive rather than clearly wrong.

I գնահատimate a meaningfully higher-than-market chance that at least one quarter of GDP will exceed 5% during 2025–2028, but it is still far from the base case. My independent probability is 34%, reflecting that the threshold is high and usually requires either an unusually strong expansion quarter or a rebound from weakness.

I put the chance that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is actually used during Trump’s presidency at 18%. The bar is extremely high, and the available context suggests no current trajectory toward a formal incapacity declaration, though the risk is not zero over a multi-year horizon.

CDU is still a live contender, but the latest polling no longer gives it a clean path to first place. I rate its chance of winning the most seats at 36%, slightly below the market price because Linke currently appears to have the better polling position.

Trump invoking the Insurrection Act is plausible but still not the base case. I make it meaningfully above the market at 25%, driven by the combination of his willingness to use emergency powers and the fact that a serious domestic unrest or immigration-related crisis is not far-fetched over a full presidential term.

I would price this as a low-probability event, but not quite as low as the market implies. The most plausible path is an extraordinary ceasefire or summit framework forcing a direct encounter, which still looks unlikely before year-end 2026.

Ulf Kristersson remains a plausible next prime minister, but the market is pricing in a substantial risk that the post-election coalition math changes and another candidate takes office. My independent estimate is that he is underpriced only slightly on the Yes side, with No still the more likely outcome.

The market appears to overstate the chance of a Russia performance given the venue rejection and lack of confirmed alternate arrangements. I think a Yes outcome is still possible if a last-minute replacement venue emerges, but No is more likely.

New Hampshire is still the most likely state to go first, but not by as wide a margin as the market suggests. I think the Yes outcome is more like a strong favorite than a near-lock, given the real possibility of a revised Democratic calendar or an early challenge from another state.

United Russia is still the clear favorite to gain the most seats, because Russia’s parliamentary system is heavily managed and the ruling party starts from a dominant position. The main reason to be less than near-certain is that the market is asking for seat gains, not just winning the most seats, which creates some room for strategic reshuffling or modest gains by another party.

I think Hyperliquid has a solid chance of reaching $90 by the end of 2026, but the market may be a bit too confident given how quickly crypto momentum can reverse. My estimate is below the current market price, with a meaningful tail risk that a broad drawdown or token-specific setback prevents the move.

I lean slightly toward US real GDP growth in 2033 landing in the 1.1% to 1.5% range, with a modestly higher probability than the market implies. The distribution still leaves meaningful tails on both the downside and the upside, but the modal outcome looks centered just above 1%.

My estimate is that US real GDP growth in 2036 is most likely to land in the low-to-mid 2% range, with the 1.6% to 2.0% band the single best bucket but not a majority outcome. Overall, I put the binary Yes probability modestly above the market at 31%, mainly because long-run US growth is much more likely to remain positive and fairly stable than the current price implies.

China overtaking the US economy by 2030 looks possible but still unlikely. I estimate a Yes probability of 13%, with the main hurdle being that China would need sustained faster nominal growth plus favorable exchange-rate moves in only a few years.

Elon Musk is capable of very high posting volume, so staying below 40 posts over a 48-hour window is possible but not the default outcome. I think the market is directionally right that this is unlikely, though there is still a meaningful chance of a quieter stretch if he is occupied or deliberately less active.

I think NYC is slightly more likely than not to post a very small population increase over July 2025 to July 2027, with the modal outcome being growth in the 0.01% to 0.99% range. The market looks a bit too focused on flat-to-down outcomes given immigration support and the city’s tendency to stabilize after shocks.

Toy Story 5 has a strong chance to land exactly third among 2026 domestic opening weekends because the brand is powerful enough to post a massive debut, but still likely below the year’s very biggest event films. The main vulnerability is that exact third place is fragile: if one expected blockbuster underperforms or a surprise hit emerges, the movie could easily finish second or fourth instead.

The market is already implying a strong chance of at least one hike in 2026, and the latest hawkish shift in expectations makes Yes more likely than not. I would put the probability somewhat above the current market price because even a single hike late in the year now looks quite plausible.

Google has a credible path to the top spot, but current leaderboard signals and market sentiment do not favor it as the most likely year-end leader. The best estimate is a low-probability outcome, with Google needing a meaningful late-2026 breakthrough or rivals to stumble.

I think the market is slightly too confident on Yes, but not by much. The most likely outcome is that the reported US median home value on September 30 lands just below $419,000, though the margin could be tight enough that a modest late-summer price drift or a revised index print could flip it.

The video is already off to a very strong start, and the market’s current pricing near 80% for under 38 million looks broadly reasonable. I would still lean slightly toward Yes because the early pace suggests it can slow enough to finish below the threshold, but the margin is not huge.

The chance of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 looks low, but not negligible, because a major regional crisis could still trigger a limited offensive. My estimate is slightly below the market price, reflecting that a full military move to establish control over any Iranian territory would be a major escalation with high diplomatic and military costs.

I think there is a meaningful chance of a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic by year-end, but the bar is fairly high and the market is right to price this as a minority outcome. My estimate is slightly below the market-implied level because persistent regional security risk and the need for a sustained seven-day average above 60 make a quick normalization less likely than a brief rebound.

Base has credible strategic reasons to eventually launch a token, but the regulatory, reputational, and governance hurdles remain substantial. I put the chance of a public, transferable token by June 30, 2027 at 38%, slightly below the current market-implied probability.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 during September looks possible but still unlikely. The market’s very low Yes price seems directionally reasonable, though I would assign a somewhat higher chance than the current quote because Bitcoin can move sharply in short windows.

I slightly favor a move to a new location in Illinois by the 2028 season opener, but only by a narrow margin. The most plausible path is still an Illinois-based suburban site, while Indiana remains a credible fallback if financing, zoning, or political hurdles slow progress.