Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I think OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to IPO first, but not nearly as certain as the market implies. The governance complexity at OpenAI makes this far from a lock, and Anthropic’s cleaner structure gives it a credible path to go public earlier.
Analysis
OpenAI has the stronger incentive to become public first because it is the larger, more capital-intensive company and likely faces greater long-run pressure to monetize its scale through public markets. If either company decides it needs a broad equity base, liquidity for employees, or a valuation reset, OpenAI is the more obvious candidate to move first simply because of its size, brand, and market visibility. That said, the path is not straightforward: OpenAI’s unusual governance and nonprofit control could slow any IPO process materially, and regulatory, structural, or shareholder constraints could easily delay it for years.
Anthropic is the main reason this is not close to certain. Its corporate structure appears more conventional, which could make a public offering easier once market conditions are favorable and the company decides it wants one. Anthropic also does not need to be first to be successful; it can remain private longer if it continues raising large private rounds on favorable terms. If OpenAI gets bogged down in restructuring or legal complexity, Anthropic could plausibly slip ahead despite being smaller and less prominent.
The current market price of 0.91 for Yes suggests an assumption that OpenAI’s size and investor demand dominate the structural obstacles. I think that is too confident. OpenAI is still the more likely first IPO, but the spread between the two companies’ paths is narrower than 91% implies, because the ordering will be driven as much by governance and timing as by ambition. My independent estimate is closer to the high-60s: bullish on OpenAI first, but with enough structural uncertainty to leave meaningful room for Anthropic to beat it to public markets.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI is the more visible and strategically important company, which makes a public listing more likely to be prioritized.
- Its funding and liquidity needs may create stronger pressure to access public capital before Anthropic does.
Against
- OpenAI’s governance structure adds real execution risk that could slow an IPO materially.
- Anthropic may have a simpler legal path to market and could capitalize on a more favorable window first.
Key drivers
- OpenAI’s larger scale and capital needs make a public listing more likely to be pursued first.
- Anthropic’s comparatively simpler structure could let it move faster if market conditions favor an IPO.
Risk factors
- OpenAI’s nonprofit control and restructuring complexity could delay or derail an IPO timeline.
- Anthropic could secure enough private funding to wait longer and still end up going public first.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI resolves its structural issues, public-market conditions stay favorable, and it files well before Anthropic, making the Yes outcome clear.
Most likely
OpenAI eventually goes public before Anthropic, but only after some delay and with enough uncertainty that the ordering is not as one-sided as the market suggests.
Worst case
OpenAI remains constrained by governance and restructuring hurdles while Anthropic chooses to IPO first on a cleaner, faster timeline.
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