Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

A direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin remains structurally difficult because both leaders have strong political and security reasons to avoid it unless a broader diplomatic breakthrough has already occurred. In the absence of a major shift in the war, the default outcome is continued indirect negotiations through intermediaries rather than a face-to-face meeting, especially given the personal and legal symbolism each side attaches to the encounter. With only a few months left before the deadline, time itself is a major constraint because arranging venue, guarantees, agenda, and public framing for such a summit is complicated even in calmer circumstances.

That said, the probability is not zero because this kind of event is often driven by abrupt geopolitical pressure rather than gradual trend lines. If external actors push hard for a ceasefire, prisoner exchange, security guarantees, or a photo-op summit to lock in a broader deal, both sides could be pulled into a meeting that would have seemed implausible weeks earlier. The strongest argument for Yes is not that the war is close to ending, but that high-level diplomacy can sometimes produce one-off encounters even when the underlying conflict remains unresolved.

The market’s 10% price looks broadly sensible, though I think it understates the possibility of an enforced or symbolic meeting by a small amount. My independent estimate is modestly above the market because the calendar is short but still long enough for a surprise diplomatic opening, especially if outside mediation intensifies. Even so, this remains a low-confidence call, and the base case is still no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before the deadline.