Edges for Sep 1, 2026

The market is pricing a high chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged for all of 2026, and that is broadly plausible if inflation stays sticky and the labor market remains resilient. I would still put some meaningful weight on at least one cut later in the year, so I am slightly less bullish on the No-cuts outcome than the market.

The Whisper Man has a plausible path to the #2 spot if it is a fresh, widely promoted Netflix release with strong first-week viewing, but the absence of clear evidence of breakout demand keeps this below a coin flip. My estimate is slightly under the market price because the title does not obviously signal mass-market dominance against Netflix’s usual stronger contenders.

The market is leaning toward the video finishing under 20 million views in its first week, but that threshold is low for a Grand Theft Auto VI upload on Rockstar’s channel. I think the more likely outcome is that it clears 20 million, though not by a huge margin if the video is more of a gameplay deep dive than a mass-appeal trailer.

I think a Barron Trump pardon is unlikely absent a concrete legal exposure, and the current market looks dramatically too high. My independent estimate is 8%.

Robinhood looks materially more likely than not to finish 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers. The market price implies a very low growth bar for a company that has continued to add customers steadily, and that seems too bearish unless growth stalls sharply.

The market is pricing in an almost certain Rotten Tomatoes score of 60 or higher, but without visible review context that feels a bit too confident. I still lean Yes because the price suggests strong prior information is embedded, though my estimate is meaningfully below the market.

I think OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to be the first of the two to go public, but the market is pricing that outcome too aggressively. My independent probability for Yes is 68%.

My independent estimate is that Trump has a meaningful but not dominant chance of being impeached again before the end of the term, closer to the low-to-mid 40s than the market’s 64%. The market appears to be pricing in a fairly aggressive political assumption that the House will flip and that a sufficiently severe scandal will emerge.

NVIDIA has a meaningful chance to remain among the largest companies in the world, but being exactly third by market cap on September 30 is a narrow and unstable outcome. I rate the Yes case well above the market price, but still more likely than not to miss because a small move in any of the mega-cap leaders can change the ranking.

The most likely outcome is that Trump does not meaningfully take back the Panama Canal during his term. This would require a dramatic and unprecedented shift in U.S.-Panama relations, so I put the independent probability of Yes at 6%.

Elon Musk is capable of exceeding 40 counted posts over a 48-hour window, but that requires a fairly active stretch and is not guaranteed. With no strong evidence of an unusually intense posting burst, I think the under-40 outcome is somewhat more likely than the market price implies, but still far from certain.

A Trump purchase of Greenland, even just part of it, remains extraordinarily unlikely. I would place the true probability in the low single digits, far below the current market price.

I think the market is too dismissive of the chance that 2026 turns into a genuinely bad year for Trump, but the bar for a clear Yes is still fairly high because the exact contract definition is opaque. My independent estimate is 27%, well above the current 10% price but still a minority outcome.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is possible but still unlikely to be formally invoked before Trump leaves office. The legal threshold is extremely high and politically dangerous, making this a low-probability event despite the president’s historically volatile political environment.

NVIDIA has a strong path to remain the largest company by market cap through the end of 2026, but the market is pricing in a very high degree of confidence. I think the Yes outcome is more likely than not, though not as likely as the current price implies.

I think the market is somewhat too confident on the 10+ threshold. Burnham is likely to say “Speaker” several times in a normal PMQs exchange, but reaching 10 or more depends on a long, choppy session rather than the baseline pattern.

My independent estimate is that Trump resigning before the end of the term is very unlikely, but not impossible. I put the chance materially below the market, around 6%.

A U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term remains extremely unlikely. My independent estimate is that there is about a 96% chance of no acquisition, with the small remaining probability spread across speculative deal-size outcomes.

Anthropic looks like the favorite, but the market is probably a bit too confident. I still lean Yes because Claude has been highly competitive in arena-style rankings, though a late-month move by OpenAI, Google, or another frontier lab could still overturn the lead.

I think USAID has a meaningful chance of being eliminated or functionally dismantled during Trump’s term, but the legal and institutional hurdles are substantial. My independent estimate is lower than a coin flip, yet notably above the market’s current 26% Yes price.

Anthropic looks like a strong favorite, but the market may be pricing in too much certainty for a leaderboard that can move quickly. I would still assign Anthropic a solid edge, though not quite as high as the current price implies.

Ali Khamenei is a notable figure and a passing involving him could draw global attention, but becoming the single most searched passing on Google in 2026 still looks unlikely. The market is already pricing a very low chance, and I think that is broadly justified.

I think a 2026 Fed hike is somewhat more likely than not, but the market price looks a bit aggressive. The remaining meetings and the Fed’s willingness to react to sticky inflation keep Yes alive, yet the default path is still to hold unless data reaccelerate.

Alibaba remains the favorite because Qwen has a strong track record, broad research depth, and the infrastructure to keep iterating quickly. Still, the Chinese model race is volatile enough that a late move by DeepSeek, ByteDance, or another rival could easily change the outcome.

Lindsay Clancy has a real path to a murder conviction, but the combination of a potentially powerful mental-state defense, procedural delay risk, and the possibility of a lesser or non-murder outcome keeps this below even. I estimate a modestly higher-than-market chance at 38%.

I think there is a meaningful chance JOLTS openings come in below 7.1M, but the market may be somewhat too pessimistic. My estimate is that Yes is more likely than the current price implies only modestly, at about 34%.

I put Trump’s chance of invoking the Insurrection Act during this presidency at 27%. It is still more likely than not that he never uses it, but the probability is meaningfully higher than the market implies because the threshold is low if he faces sustained unrest, major civil disorder, or an electoral-security crisis.

Hyperliquid reaching $90 by the end of 2026 looks more likely than not, but the market is pricing in a fairly aggressive continuation of momentum. I think the true probability is somewhat below the current market-implied level, because the target still requires a meaningful rally and crypto conditions can turn quickly.

Solana has a meaningful path to $140 by the end of 2026, but the market is still correctly pricing in substantial uncertainty. I see a slightly better-than-even chance that the price touches that level before year-end, though not by a wide margin.

I assign a modestly higher Yes probability than the market because a direct Zelenskyy-Putin conversation, while still unlikely, can happen through extraordinary diplomacy under pressure. The current price appears to assume near-total stalemate, which underestimates how often wartime negotiation channels can produce a single high-stakes leader-level contact.

The Whisper Man has a real path to winning because it has already shown #1 momentum in a recent U.S. snapshot, but the balance of evidence still leans against it holding the weekly lead through the full Monday-to-Sunday window. I would price Yes at 14%, below the market's implied uncertainty around a strong favorite elsewhere but above a pure longshot because the title is clearly in contention.

I put the chance of Trump’s 2026 bull case landing at 12%. That is still a low-probability outcome, but meaningfully above the market’s 5.3%, because 2026 could plausibly deliver at least one or two favorable political, legal, or economic developments for him.

I put the chance of a U.S. recession in 2027 at 36%, higher than the market’s 29% Yes price. The market appears to be pricing a relatively soft-landing path, but recession risk over a full calendar year remains meaningfully elevated given cycle maturity and the long lead time involved.

The market is leaning heavily toward a positive outcome, and that makes sense because Google is likely to keep pushing Gemini Flash forward and a qualifying debut above 1480 is plausible. Still, the event has a few hidden filters around exact model naming, first appearance timing, and leaderboard treatment, so I would price Yes somewhat below the current market.

Marine Le Pen still has a plausible path to the presidency if she remains eligible and the anti-incumbent mood stays strong, but the combination of legal uncertainty, runoff dynamics, and her long-standing ceiling of support makes a win less likely than the market price suggests. I put her chances at 27%.

The odds of a true U.S. invasion of Iran before the end of 2026 look low, even though the two countries are already in an active military confrontation. Current reporting points much more toward continued strikes, blockade pressure, and sanctions than toward a ground campaign intended to seize territory.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks slightly more likely than not. The market is close to even, but the threshold is within a plausible late-year move if crypto sentiment stays constructive.

Anna Kelly is a plausible but not dominant favorite in this field, and the market’s 26% looks a bit low if the appointment is driven by loyalty and continuity rather than conventional media experience. Still, the race appears highly fragmented, so a Yes outcome is more likely than not only if she remains a top internal choice through the next staffing cycle.

Elon Musk is still active enough on X that a sub-40 count over this 48-hour window is plausible, but 40 posts is a fairly high bar for him and the market is already pricing in a substantial chance of staying above it. I think the Yes outcome is somewhat less likely than the current price suggests, with the clearest edge coming from the short window and the fact that not every day produces extreme posting volume.

Benjamin Netanyahu remains a serious contender to return as prime minister after the election, but the coalition math is still unfavorable enough that I would rate his chances below one-third. The market’s No side looks slightly too high to me, but not by much.

United Russia is still the regime’s default beneficiary in a tightly managed Russian election, so I lean Yes. The main caveat is that this market measures net seat gains versus the last Duma, and ER’s already huge caucus limits how much it can improve.

Democrats have a plausible path to winning both chambers, and the House increasingly looks favorable to them. But the Senate remains the bottleneck, and the need for four net pickups makes the combined outcome slightly less likely than the market price suggests.

Democrats remain favored to win the House, mainly because midterms usually punish the president's party and the opposition only needs a modest seat gain. Still, the Republican map and turnout uncertainty make the market's very high confidence look a bit aggressive.

I think a move to a new Illinois location is slightly more likely than the market suggests, with the main path still being a suburban relocation rather than staying put. Indiana is the only meaningful alternative, but it remains a secondary outcome unless Illinois financing or approvals bog down.

A removal from office is possible but still unlikely. My estimate is below the market because impeachment alone is easier than impeachment and conviction, and the latter has a very high historical and structural bar.

I think the market is slightly underpricing the chance of a 5.0% unemployment print in 2026, but it is still more likely than not that the rate stays below that threshold. A reasonable estimate is about 12%.

I make this a modestly unlikely event, but not a long shot: about a one-in-five chance that at least one quarter of GDP prints above 5% annualized during 2025-2028. The market is a bit high, in my view, because sustained 5% growth is hard to achieve outside of rebound periods or unusually large stimulus.

I think Yes is more likely than not, and the market’s high price looks broadly reasonable. The main reason is that a token launch from a branded prediction platform can attract immediate speculative demand, but the outcome still depends on whether the launch is credible, liquid, and not heavily dilutive.

The chance of the U.S. actually acquiring any part of Greenland before 2029 looks real but still low. Trump’s rhetoric and reported talks about military-installation territory create some nonzero pathway, but Danish sovereignty, Greenlandic opposition, and allied resistance make a transfer unlikely.

I think a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before the end of 2026 is possible but still unlikely, with the odds closer to the low-teens than the current market’s 10%. The baseline remains that Taiwan is tense but not yet in the kind of immediate, life-threatening travel environment the State Department usually reserves for Do Not Travel designations.

I assess a roughly 41% chance that the next President confirms exactly one Supreme Court justice during the term, with zero or two confirmations both somewhat more plausible than the market implies. The market looks slightly too skeptical of the one-confirmation outcome, but not dramatically so.

Core PCE has been running sticky, and the latest 3.3% reading leaves limited room for a drop to 3.0% or below by August. A downside surprise is possible, but it would likely require a meaningfully softer monthly print than the recent pace.