How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
I assess a roughly 41% chance that the next President confirms exactly one Supreme Court justice during the term, with zero or two confirmations both somewhat more plausible than the market implies. The market looks slightly too skeptical of the one-confirmation outcome, but not dramatically so.
Analysis
The core driver is simple: Supreme Court confirmations are rare events, but the remaining window is long enough that at least one vacancy is plausible. With roughly two and a half years left in the term, the most realistic path to exactly one confirmation is a single retirement, death, or unexpected departure among the Court’s older members, followed by a successful confirmation process. Given the current age profile of the Court, that outcome is neither remote nor certain, and it is more plausible than a full-term of complete continuity would be in a historical sense. At the same time, the Court can go long stretches without a change, so a no-confirmation outcome still deserves a substantial share of the probability mass.
The biggest reason the market may underweight the one-justice case is that the current lineup contains several justices in their 70s, which keeps vacancy risk elevated over a multiyear horizon. Even one departure is enough to make this contract resolve Yes, and the confirmation machinery has already shown it can move when a vacancy appears. That said, the distribution is not concentrated enough to make one confirmation the default outcome; if a vacancy does not occur, the answer is No, and if an early vacancy does occur, there is a meaningful chance of a second one later in the term, especially over a full four-year horizon.
Compared with the current pricing, my estimate is modestly more favorable to Yes than the market’s 45% implied price would suggest for a simple binary framing, though the direct binary price here is somewhat limited by the multi-outcome structure. The more important point is that the market’s 30% for two confirmations and 27% for zero confirmations appear to leave too little room for the middle case of exactly one confirmation, which is often the modal outcome in vacancy-driven regimes when the term is long enough for one vacancy to occur but not long enough for cascading turnover. I therefore think exactly one confirmation is the single most likely outcome, even if it is far from a certainty.
Arguments
For
- Several justices are old enough that a single vacancy over the remaining term is a realistic scenario.
- The remaining time horizon is long enough for one vacancy to arise and be confirmed, but not so long that multiple vacancies are clearly more likely than one.
Against
- Supreme Court turnover is inherently infrequent, so a no-confirmation term remains a substantial possibility.
- A second vacancy would turn a plausible one-confirmation scenario into a two-confirmation outcome, which makes the exact-one case less certain.
Key drivers
- The age profile of the Court keeps the probability of at least one vacancy materially above zero over the remaining term.
- Exactly one confirmation is the natural midpoint outcome if the term sees one ordinary vacancy but not a broader wave of departures.
Risk factors
- If no justice leaves the Court, the outcome is a clean No and the Yes side loses entirely.
- If an early vacancy triggers a second one later in the term, the contract shifts from one confirmation to two or more.
Scenarios
Best case
A single vacancy opens during the term and is successfully filled, while no second vacancy occurs before the term ends.
Most likely
One vacancy occurs and is confirmed, making exactly one Supreme Court confirmation the most likely single outcome.
Worst case
No justice leaves the Court during the term, or two separate vacancies arise and both are filled, pushing the outcome away from exactly one.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 45% |
| 2 | 25% | 30% |
| 0 | 28% | 27% |
| 3 | 5% | 3% |
| 9 | 1% | 2% |
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