Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I think OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to be the first of the two to go public, but the market is pricing that outcome too aggressively. My independent probability for Yes is 68%.
Analysis
OpenAI has the stronger case to be first because it is the more prominent, more capital-intensive business and therefore has the clearest strategic reason to access public markets eventually. If either company decides that transparency, liquidity, and a broader capital base are worth the tradeoffs, OpenAI’s scale and brand make it the more likely candidate to take that step before 2040. Anthropic could also IPO, but it has slightly less pressure to do so first if it can continue raising private capital from major strategic backers and maintain strong growth without public-market scrutiny.
The biggest counterweight is that both companies are highly unusual and may not follow a normal startup-to-IPO path. OpenAI’s governance structure, mission constraints, and complex relationship with partners could make a public listing difficult or delayed, while Anthropic may prefer to remain private longer if private markets keep rewarding frontier AI growth. In other words, the event is not just about which company is bigger; it is about which one can clear legal, structural, and strategic hurdles first, and those hurdles are real for both.
Against that backdrop, a 90% market price for Yes looks too high unless the market is effectively saying the answer is nearly predetermined. I do not think it is that certain. OpenAI is the likelier first IPO, but there is still substantial path dependence: governance changes, regulatory pressure, market conditions, and the pace of AI commercialization could easily flip the outcome or delay both listings far beyond what a near-certain price implies.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI is the larger and more visible company, which usually increases the odds it reaches IPO readiness first.
- A public market exit would give OpenAI more flexibility to fund compute-heavy expansion and broader commercialization.
Against
- OpenAI’s unusual corporate structure and partner relationships could make an IPO slower or harder than for a conventional software company.
- Anthropic may have more freedom to choose timing and could beat OpenAI to market if it wants a cleaner, simpler public debut.
Key drivers
- OpenAI’s scale and capital needs make a public listing strategically attractive at some point.
- Structural and governance constraints could delay either company, making the outcome less certain than the market suggests.
Risk factors
- Anthropic could choose to IPO earlier if it finds a cleaner governance path and favorable market timing.
- Both firms may remain private for many years if private capital stays abundant and public markets remain unattractive.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI resolves its structural issues, growth remains strong, and it lists before Anthropic, making Yes a comfortable win.
Most likely
OpenAI eventually ends up first, but the path is messy and timing is uncertain enough that the market should not treat the outcome as near-certain.
Worst case
Anthropic completes a public offering first, or OpenAI never gets to market before 2040, causing No to win.
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