Edges for Aug 23, 2026

I assess a high likelihood that USAID will be considered eliminated within the market’s timeframe, though the exact legal and institutional end state may continue to be contested. The strongest evidence points to a completed dismantling of the agency’s original structure and functions, with foreign aid largely absorbed into the State Department.

2026 still has a path to the top, but the latest evidence points more toward a near-record year than an outright record. I think the chance it finishes as the single hottest year is meaningfully below the market price.

The most likely outcome is that Insidious: Out of the Further opens below $25 million domestically. Current tracking, especially the $3 million Thursday preview number and repeated $23 million-ish weekend estimates, points to a finish in the low-to-mid $20 millions.

Anthropic looks modestly more likely to IPO before OpenAI, despite OpenAI filing soon after. The market’s heavy Yes price appears to assume OpenAI is the first mover, but the available reporting points to Anthropic maintaining a timing edge.

The market strongly expects Elon Musk to exceed 40 countable posts in this 48-hour window, but I still see a meaningful chance that he stays under the line. My estimate is below the market's implied No probability, though not by a huge margin.

Hyperliquid has a credible path to $90 if crypto risk appetite stays strong and the platform keeps gaining volume, but the market is pricing in an outcome that still depends on a lot of things going right. I think the chance is meaningfully below the current market-implied level because the next five months can easily include a broad crypto drawdown or a sentiment reset.

Arsenal are a legitimate title contender, but I think the market is too optimistic at nearly a coin flip. My estimate is a materially lower chance, with Arsenal still live but not the most likely winner in a crowded Premier League race.

My independent estimate is that the Department of Education is more likely than not to survive in name, even if Trump continues to hollow it out. The chance of full elimination by Jan. 20, 2029 looks well below the current market implied probability.

The film is currently far enough below 900 million that the remaining days would need an unusually strong finish to push it over. Based on the recent daily decline, I think a sub-900 domestic total by August 31 is much more likely than not.

The most likely outcome is still No, but the chance of some form of Trump-driven U.S. pressure campaign is meaningfully higher than the market seems to price. A true transfer of control over the Panama Canal remains very unlikely, so my independent Yes probability is well below the current market’s implied 20%.

Democrats look meaningfully favored to win House control, mainly because midterms usually punish the president’s party and the GOP is likely defending a fragile majority. Still, the market’s 87.5% is higher than I would set it because district lines and seat geography can keep the House closer than national mood suggests.

Democrats have a credible path to taking the House, but winning both chambers requires a Senate outcome that is substantially less forgiving. I put the chance of a Democratic Senate and Democratic House at 38%, a bit below the current market price because the Senate remains the main bottleneck.

A rate cut in September looks possible but still not the base case. The most likely outcome is no change, with a modest but meaningful chance that the Bank of Israel trims rates if inflation and growth data soften enough.

The market’s 13.5% Yes price looks a bit low to me, because any real MetaMask token launch would likely clear a $100M FDV almost immediately. The main obstacle is not valuation after launch, but whether MetaMask launches a tradable token at all before the deadline.

Alibaba looks like the leading Chinese contender and is the most likely company to hold the top Chinese spot by the end-of-August snapshot. The main reason for caution is that this market resolves on a single leaderboard check, so a late leapfrog by another Chinese lab remains possible.

The bull case for Trump in 2026 looks unlikely to fully materialize, but the probability is not as microscopic as the market implies. I would price the Yes outcome at 12%, reflecting a narrow path where a political, economic, or foreign-policy rebound meaningfully improves his standing by year-end.

I think there is a high probability that the Fed makes no rate cuts in 2026, but the risk of at least one late-year cut is still meaningful. My estimate is slightly below the current market price because three remaining meetings leave room for a surprise if growth or labor data deteriorate.

Dogecoin can move very fast, but reaching $0.20 in the final stretch of August still looks like a low-probability outcome. I put the chance of Yes slightly above the market at 11%, with No still the clear favorite.

The Last House has a very small chance of staying at number one this week. The prior week’s strong performance gives it some upside, but the market, recent momentum, and competitive context all point against it.

PSG looks like a genuine contender and may be the single most likely team to win, but the Champions League is still highly volatile and the field is deep. I would price a PSG title at 19%, modestly above the market but far from a coin-flip.

The best independent estimate is that Trump will not complete a purchase of Greenland, but the chance is meaningfully higher than a pure long-shot because he has repeatedly kept the objective alive and explored multiple acquisition paths.

Solana has a meaningful but not dominant chance of touching $140 by year-end 2026. The market is leaning No, but SOL's volatility and the remaining time window keep Yes very much alive.

Democrats are still the likelier winner in Maine’s 2026 Senate race, but the market may be a bit too confident given Maine’s history of supporting moderate Republicans. I would price the Democratic chance at a solid, but not dominant, majority.

My independent estimate is that there is still a meaningful chance of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before January 1, 2027, but it remains a low-probability event. I put Yes at 12%, above the market’s 6.8%, because even a small opening in negotiations or a forced diplomatic channel could produce a meeting faster than the consensus expects.

Marine Le Pen is still a serious contender if she is eligible to run, but legal uncertainty and her persistent runoff ceiling make a win less likely than the market implies. I would price her at 28%, with the most important question being whether she can actually clear the candidacy hurdle and then survive a two-round runoff.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks slightly more likely than not, but only by a small margin. The market is close to a coin flip, and the outcome will probably hinge on whether crypto risk appetite strengthens in the next few months.

I assign a modestly above-even chance that the Fed raises rates at least once in 2026. The market is already leaning Yes, but the bar for an actual hike remains relatively high, so I am slightly below the implied price.

The recent backlash has clearly increased the odds of an exit, but the evidence still points to Infantino most likely surviving through December 31. Pressure is real, yet the market is pricing in a faster and more decisive collapse than the current facts justify.