Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic looks modestly more likely to IPO before OpenAI, despite OpenAI filing soon after. The market’s heavy Yes price appears to assume OpenAI is the first mover, but the available reporting points to Anthropic maintaining a timing edge.
Analysis
The core question is not which company is more likely to file first, but which will complete a public listing first. On that criterion, the available reporting leans toward Anthropic edging ahead: it confidentially filed on June 1, 2026, about a week before OpenAI’s June 8 filing, and multiple reports suggest Anthropic has been targeting a late-2026 debut while OpenAI has shown more uncertainty around timing and has been discussed as potentially slipping into 2027. That combination gives Anthropic a real, though not overwhelming, timing advantage.
The strongest case for Yes is that both firms have now crossed the key procedural hurdle and are clearly moving toward public markets. OpenAI’s filing was widely seen as a sign it wanted to avoid being left behind, and if it accelerates or if Anthropic encounters delays, the order could easily flip back. In a race like this, execution details, SEC review, market windows, and internal governance can matter more than initial intent, so OpenAI cannot be dismissed.
The strongest case against Yes is that OpenAI appears to have more optionality and more reasons to wait, while Anthropic’s reporting has been more consistently tied to an earlier debut. If OpenAI chooses to preserve flexibility as a private company or runs into complexity around structure, employee liquidity, or timing, Anthropic can win simply by moving first. That makes the market’s very high Yes price look somewhat aggressive; a 92% implication seems to underweight the real possibility of OpenAI delay or Anthropic execution ahead of it.
Overall, the event is closer to a coin flip than the market suggests, but Anthropic deserves a meaningful edge on the current evidence. The most likely path is an Anthropic IPO first, with OpenAI following later, though either company could still surprise if market conditions or internal decisions change quickly.
Arguments
For
- Anthropic has the clearest reported timetable for a near-term debut.
- OpenAI’s timing uncertainty makes an Anthropic-first outcome more plausible.
Against
- Both companies have already filed, so the race could still turn on execution rather than early signals.
- OpenAI’s scale and urgency could lead it to accelerate if Anthropic starts gaining momentum.
Key drivers
- Anthropic filed first and has been reported as targeting an earlier public debut.
- OpenAI has shown more ambiguity around timing and has been discussed as potentially delaying into 2027.
Risk factors
- A faster-than-expected OpenAI process could erase Anthropic’s lead.
- SEC timing, market volatility, or governance issues could delay either listing and change the order.
Scenarios
Best case
Anthropic follows through on a late-2026 listing while OpenAI waits until 2027 or later, making the Yes outcome clear.
Most likely
Anthropic and OpenAI both continue preparing for public offerings, but Anthropic gets to market first by a narrow margin.
Worst case
OpenAI accelerates its process and reaches the market first, while Anthropic delays or loses its timetable.
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