Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

A direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting is structurally difficult because both leaders face strong political and strategic incentives to avoid appearing weak or conceding legitimacy. That said, the question only requires them to meet, not necessarily to sign a peace deal, and high-level wartime diplomacy can emerge quickly when military conditions, allied pressure, or prisoner/exchange negotiations create a narrow opening. The main reason to assign a non-trivial probability is that this sort of event is often driven by sudden external shocks rather than a smooth incremental process, so low base rates do not mean zero odds.

The biggest support for Yes is that both sides have already demonstrated, in past conflict environments, that indirect talks and occasional leader-level contact become possible when the cost of stalemate rises. If battlefield dynamics worsen, if a ceasefire framework gains traction, or if a third party such as the United States, Turkey, or a Gulf state pushes for a summit, the probability of a meeting can jump sharply. Because the deadline is still months away, there is enough time for a diplomatic surprise, especially if the meeting is framed as exploratory rather than a formal peace summit.

The strongest case for No is that the current conflict structure strongly disincentivizes a bilateral meeting, and neither side benefits from conceding equal-status optics without a clear strategic payoff. Putin may prefer to keep pressure on the West rather than meet directly, while Zelenskyy has little reason to enter a photo-op unless it improves security or sovereignty outcomes. The market’s pricing looks somewhat too pessimistic to me, mainly because 6.8% implies near-complete diplomatic deadlock, whereas conflict negotiations frequently produce unexpected leader-level contact when external conditions change, even if a substantive breakthrough is unlikely.