Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

The core question is whether USAID will be eliminated during Trump’s term, and the available context strongly favors yes. Multiple reports indicate the administration has already shut down USAID, terminated most of its programs and contracts, and transferred remaining functions into the State Department’s new foreign assistance structure. That means the practical substance of elimination has largely already occurred, even if litigation, congressional pushback, or administrative cleanup continues to generate ambiguity around the final legal form.

The main argument against a full yes is that prediction markets sometimes draw a distinction between operational dismantling and formal statutory abolition. USAID could be said to still exist on paper, or some residual functions could survive in a renamed or successor entity, which would allow a No outcome if the market definition requires total extinction of the agency as a matter of law. But the reported closure, the completion of program cuts, and the creation of a replacement framework make that narrower interpretation less persuasive than usual.

Compared with the current price of 29% Yes, the market looks materially underestimating the probability of a Yes outcome. The news flow suggests this is no longer a speculative policy proposal but an ongoing administrative restructuring that has already moved far enough toward dissolution that the remaining uncertainty is mostly definitional rather than substantive. If the market resolves on practical elimination or absorbed shutdown rather than strict statutory repeal, the Yes side appears closer to the true odds.