Edges for Aug 22, 2026

This is a very strong Yes on the under-35m threshold. A fourth weekend above 35m would require extraordinary staying power, and that is rare even for a Spider-Man tentpole.

2026 still has a path to the top, but the latest evidence points more toward a near-record year than an outright record. I think the chance it finishes as the single hottest year is meaningfully below the market price.

The under-900m outcome looks overwhelmingly likely. A Spider-Man film would need an essentially unprecedented domestic run to reach 900m in just one month, so my estimate is that Yes is far more likely than the current market price implies.

USAID is more likely than not to be functionally eliminated in some market-relevant form, but a clean statutory repeal is still a meaningful hurdle. My independent estimate is materially higher than the market’s 30% Yes because aggressive downsizing, defunding, or merger pathways appear more plausible than a full preservation of the agency’s current structure.

The market is pricing this as almost certain, but I think the chance of a BLA submission by June 30, 2027 is meaningfully lower because timing and manufacturing remain the main bottlenecks.

Arsenal look like a genuine title contender, but the market’s 45.5% Yes price seems too high for a league as competitive and volatile as the Premier League. My estimate is that they have a meaningful chance, but still more likely than not to fall short of the title.

I lean modestly toward Yes on the under-25 million outcome. The franchise has enough brand recognition to draw a solid horror opening, but the series’ ceiling has historically been inconsistent, and a late-summer frame can still leave this below the threshold.

Hyperliquid has a credible path to $90 by year-end if crypto sentiment stays strong and the platform keeps compounding volume and fees. I make it slightly more likely than not, but below the current market price because the target is still a substantial move in a short window.

My independent estimate is that the Department of Education is more likely than not to survive in name, even if Trump continues to hollow it out. The chance of full elimination by Jan. 20, 2029 looks well below the current market implied probability.

Wild Horse Nine has some prestige because of Martin McDonagh, but there is still no concrete evidence that it is actually in the Oscar race yet. The biggest obstacle is the nomination gate: if it is not nominated for Best Original Screenplay, this market resolves to No immediately.

The most likely outcome is still No, but the chance of some form of Trump-driven U.S. pressure campaign is meaningfully higher than the market seems to price. A true transfer of control over the Panama Canal remains very unlikely, so my independent Yes probability is well below the current market’s implied 20%.

Democrats remain favored to win Wisconsin’s 2026 governor race, but the market looks somewhat too confident given how competitive the state is and how much depends on the final nominee. I would price a Democratic win closer to 70% than the low-80s.

The most likely outcome is that The Odyssey stays above $17 million in its sixth weekend, but the gap is not huge because late-run box office declines can accelerate quickly. I see a meaningful tail risk of a softer-than-expected weekend, so Yes is possible but still the minority outcome.

Elon Musk is active enough on X that surpassing 40 counted posts over a 48-hour window is plausible, but the threshold is high enough that a quieter stretch could still keep him below it. I գնահատ estimate the chance of fewer than 40 posts at 34%.

Democrats look meaningfully favored to win House control, mainly because midterms usually punish the president’s party and the GOP is likely defending a fragile majority. Still, the market’s 87.5% is higher than I would set it because district lines and seat geography can keep the House closer than national mood suggests.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still far below the threshold needed for a “Yes,” and the latest evidence suggests the market would need a rapid and sustained normalization to clear 60 on a 7-day moving average. I see a meaningful chance of de-escalation before year-end, but not enough to make a return to normal more likely than not.

NVIDIA is still the most likely largest company by market cap at the August 31 close, but the outcome is not fully locked in because a late-month earnings move could shift the ranking. I see a very strong Yes case, though slightly less certain than the market price implies.

Brentford have a meaningful home-field chance, but against Tottenham they still look like a modest underdog. I would price a Brentford win at 39%, a little below the market’s 41.5% yes price.

I assess a 52% chance that the team relocates to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 regular season. The market is close, but I slightly favor Indiana because a cross-state move can be easier to execute politically and operationally than a more contentious in-Illinois option.

Ethereum is still a long shot to touch $2,600 during August 17-23, and the market is pricing that in with a very low Yes probability. I think the true chance is slightly higher than the market implied level, but still only around 10% because the event requires a meaningful near-term move, not just stability.

The market heavily favors The Last House finishing #2, and I think that is the most likely outcome. I am a bit less confident than the current price because there is no fresh viewership evidence here, but the balance still points strongly toward Yes.

A U.S. invasion of Iran by the end of 2026 looks unlikely. The threshold here is not just attacking Iran but beginning a military offensive aimed at controlling territory, which would require a major political decision, large force commitments, and a willingness to absorb severe regional and economic consequences.

The most likely outcome is still no Supreme Court confirmations, with one confirmation a meaningful but slightly underpriced possibility. My independent estimate puts a single confirmation around 45%, driven by the long horizon and the real chance of one retirement or unexpected vacancy, but not enough to make it the modal outcome.

Marine Le Pen has a plausible path to the runoff, but French two-round dynamics, likely anti-RN strategic voting, and meaningful legal uncertainty make her a minority favorite rather than the most likely winner.

I think there is a high probability that the Fed makes no rate cuts in 2026, but the risk of at least one late-year cut is still meaningful. My estimate is slightly below the current market price because three remaining meetings leave room for a surprise if growth or labor data deteriorate.

United Russia is still the most likely party to be the biggest seat gainer in a tightly managed Russian parliamentary election, but the margin is not especially secure because smaller pro-system parties can grow from a much lower base. I rate Yes at 64%, below the market price, because the net-gain framing makes this less certain than a simple question about which party wins the most seats overall.

I lean slightly toward Ethereum touching $3,000 before the end of 2026 because the target is close enough for a normal crypto rally to reach, and the remaining time window is long enough for volatility to do the work. The main caution is that Ethereum still needs a favorable macro or market catalyst, so this is only a modest edge, not a strong conviction.

Scott Jennings is the most plausible single-name contender, but the market already prices that reasonably well. My independent view is that the race is still fairly open, with Jennings leading but not commanding a majority chance.

I think the market is underpricing a modest chance of a qualifying tariff, but the most likely outcome is still no broad Canada-wide tariff in effect by year-end. The best estimate is 30% Yes.

I think there is a slight edge to the film opening below 8 million domestically, mainly because nothing in the available context suggests strong breakout demand. The market price is close to fair, but I lean a bit more toward a modest opening than a surprise overperformance.

A Fed rate hike in 2026 looks slightly more likely than not, but only by a narrow margin. The market is already close to a coin flip, and with several meetings still left, the outcome will hinge on whether inflation re-accelerates or stays tame.

The best independent estimate is that Trump will not complete a purchase of Greenland, but the chance is meaningfully higher than a pure long-shot because he has repeatedly kept the objective alive and explored multiple acquisition paths.

Democrats are still the likelier winner in Maine’s 2026 Senate race, but the market may be a bit too confident given Maine’s history of supporting moderate Republicans. I would price the Democratic chance at a solid, but not dominant, majority.

The recent backlash has clearly increased the odds of an exit, but the evidence still points to Infantino most likely surviving through December 31. Pressure is real, yet the market is pricing in a faster and more decisive collapse than the current facts justify.

The August University of Michigan sentiment index is much more likely to finish above 49.0 than below it. The preliminary reading of 51.0 gives the No side a strong edge, and the final release would need an unusually large downward revision to cross the threshold.

A negative year-over-year eurozone GDP print for Q3 2026 looks very unlikely. The latest flash data and PMI signals still point to modest positive growth, so the market’s 8% implied probability appears too high for a sub-zero outcome.