Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I think Anthropic is more likely to IPO before OpenAI, so if the market is asking whether OpenAI goes first, my answer is no more often than yes. Recent reporting has shifted the lead toward Anthropic, while OpenAI looks more likely to wait for a better valuation and a calmer market.
Analysis
The most important new information is that both companies appear to have taken preliminary IPO steps, but the relative timing now seems to favor Anthropic. Reports that Anthropic filed confidential paperwork slightly earlier and may be aiming for an October 2026 listing matter a lot, because in IPO races the company with the cleaner timetable and fewer internal constraints often gets to market first.
OpenAI still has strong reasons to eventually go public, but its path looks messier. The company’s reported delay into 2027, combined with valuation sensitivity and the extra governance complexity around its structure, makes an immediate listing less likely than the earlier reporting suggested. Even if OpenAI can move quickly once it chooses to, the latest evidence points to hesitation rather than urgency.
Against that backdrop, I would price OpenAI-first as a minority outcome. The current market price of 91% looks far too high if the contract is indeed asking whether OpenAI beats Anthropic to the IPO window, because that level seems to reflect older assumptions about OpenAI’s brand power rather than the newer timeline signals. My independent estimate is that OpenAI first is closer to one-in-four than near-certain.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has a stronger brand and could choose to move first if it believes investor demand will be exceptional.
- Some recent reporting still leaves room for an earlier 2026 OpenAI window.
Against
- Anthropic looks to have filed earlier and is more often associated with the first concrete listing target.
- OpenAI has been described as pushing its IPO into 2027, which makes it hard to justify a high probability of going first.
Key drivers
- Anthropic appears to have an earlier confidential filing and a more concrete rumored listing window.
- OpenAI’s timing is more sensitive to valuation, market conditions, and structural complexity.
- Recent reporting suggests OpenAI may prefer to wait rather than force an early public debut.
Risk factors
- Confidential filing reports can be incomplete or wrong, so the apparent timing gap may disappear.
- A sudden market reopening for AI names could let OpenAI accelerate and overtake Anthropic.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI decides to seize a strong AI market and prices a late-2026 IPO before Anthropic can launch, validating the yes side.
Most likely
Anthropic reaches the public markets first in late 2026 or early 2027, while OpenAI waits longer for a better valuation and cleaner market conditions.
Worst case
Anthropic lists in late 2026 while OpenAI delays into 2027 or beyond, making the yes side clearly wrong.
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