Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

The central issue is the gap between current traffic and the resolution threshold. Recent readings cited in the news flow are still around the 30s at best, with some days much lower, while the market requires the 7-day moving average to reach at least 60. That is not a minor improvement; it is a large and sustained increase in actual transit calls, and the market does not resolve on the basis of the strait merely being open or on occasional higher-traffic days.

There is a plausible path to Yes if shipping confidence improves quickly. The corridor is still passable, commercial transits have not stopped entirely, and the waterway is strategically important enough that a broad recovery could happen if security concerns ease and insurers, operators, and regional actors all become more comfortable. With roughly eight weeks left, a late surge is possible, and because the resolution metric is a rolling average, a few strong weeks in a row could be enough to cross the line.

Still, the balance of evidence points the other way. Major shipping behavior tends to lag political messaging, and the recent reports suggest continued caution rather than a full return to normal routing. The extension of force majeure on LNG shipments is especially important because it indicates that at least some large operators still see meaningful risk beyond the market deadline. Given the high threshold, the short remaining window, and the fact that traffic is still far from 60, No looks more likely than Yes even if the market may be assigning some value to a sharp rebound scenario.