Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The key point is that Trump is absolutely capable of generating the political conditions for impeachment, but that is not the same as Congress actually doing it. There is no current impeachment underway, and absent a new, concrete scandal or constitutional confrontation, the House is more likely to focus on oversight, messaging, or electoral strategy than on a vote that would almost certainly be dead on arrival in the Senate.

Trump’s prior impeachments matter because they show that members of Congress are willing to use the tool against him, but they also show how polarizing and symbolic it is. The biggest structural variable is the House after 2026: if Republicans keep control, the probability stays low unless there is a severe internal rupture; if Democrats win, impeachment becomes much more feasible, but still depends on whether the triggering facts are strong enough to hold a majority together and justify the political cost.

Against the current market price of 62%, I think the contract is somewhat overpriced. The market appears to be leaning heavily on long-horizon optionality and on Trump’s history, while underweighting the fact that impeachment requires a majority in the House and a real catalyst, not just persistent hostility. A fairer price, in my view, is in the low-to-mid 40s rather than the low 60s.