Edges for Jul 22, 2026

USAID has already been eliminated as an independent agency in July 2025, with its functions absorbed into the State Department, making the 'Yes' outcome certain.

The bear case for Trump in 2026 is highly probable due to a convergence of Supreme Court defeats on tariffs and executive power, unprecedented judicial rebukes of his policies, and immediate legal backlash over the 90% reduction of Utah national monuments signed just days ago.

The average measles cases per year during Trump's term will exceed 2,300, making the 'Yes' outcome (average above this threshold) highly probable at approximately 88%.

The most likely outcome is that The Odyssey’s second weekend lands below $74M, but the margin is not huge because tracking reaches the threshold exactly. The market’s 91% Yes-implied probability looks a bit too high, though the underlying box office signals still favor a sub-$74M result.

Despite the market pricing Yes at 82%, current evidence suggests Trump is unlikely to say 'Million,' 'Billion,' or 'Trillion' 10+ times in his upcoming Georgia remarks, as his recent major speech avoided Georgia-specific numerical claims and no transcript of the July 22 event exists yet.

The probability of Barron Trump receiving a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029 is extremely low because he faces no federal criminal charges, and pardons legally require an underlying offense against the United States.

NVIDIA is the likeliest answer, but the edge is not secure. The market’s 84% No price looks too high given NVIDIA’s current lead and the narrow gap, so I would assign a meaningfully higher Yes probability than the market-implied level.

The probability of another pandemic occurring before GTA VI's confirmed November 19, 2026 release is extremely low, as there are no credible health warnings or indications of an imminent pandemic from WHO, CDC, or major agencies.

The Doge-1 Lunar Mission is likely to launch by June 30, 2027, as multiple recent sources confirm a scheduled launch date of September 14, 2026, which falls well before the deadline, despite the mission's history of delays.

Despite Anthropic currently holding the top-ranked models (Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5) as of mid-July 2026, the market-implied probability of 93% for Anthropic retaining the 'best' title by end-of-August is likely inflated due to high uncertainty from expected competitor releases (OpenAI's rumored GPT-6) and a potential new Anthropic Opus 5 launch that could shift rankings.

The market is leaning strongly toward no Fed rate cuts in 2026, but the outcome is not locked in. My assessment is that zero cuts is more likely than not, though the odds are somewhat lower than the market-implied price because several major forecasters still expect at least one cut later in the year.

NVIDIA is still the slight favorite to finish July 31 as the largest company by market cap, but the race is extremely tight and vulnerable to a one- or two-session reversal. I would price this as a modest NVIDIA lean rather than a high-confidence call.

My independent estimate is that the bull case for Trump in 2026 is more likely than the market implies, but still far from assured. The most plausible path is a narrow Republican outcome supported by structural advantages and Democratic weakness rather than a broad Trump triumph.

Levski Sofia is a slight underdog-to-coin-flip home side in a closely priced qualifier, but the market and pre-match indicators do not show a strong enough edge to rate a home win as more likely than not. I would put Levski’s win probability just below 50%.

The probability of quarterly U.S. GDP exceeding 5% between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028 is low, as all reported quarters through Q2 2026 have fallen between 0.5% and 2.6%, with expert consensus and official projections pointing to sustained moderate growth near 2% rather than explosive spikes.

2026 is unlikely to be the hottest year on record, with current data from NASA and NOAA indicating it will most likely rank as the second hottest year after 2025, though a 19% chance remains for it to surpass 2024 if an intense El Niño develops in the final quarter.

Ethereum has a credible path to $3,000 by the end of 2026, but the balance of forecasts and the current market price suggest it is still more likely than not to fall short. I would price this as a meaningful upside possibility with a sub-50% probability.

I estimate a 58% chance that NYC lands in the narrow 0.01% to 0.99% increase band over the 2025–2027 window. The most likely path is near-flat population performance, but the newer official city estimates suggest enough residual growth to make a small increase slightly more likely than a decline.

Die With A Smile has a plausible path to finishing as Spotify’s top song for 2026, but the current evidence still points more strongly to a No outcome. It has led reported year-to-date streaming charts at multiple checkpoints, yet the market already reflects that it must sustain this dominance through the rest of the year and remain ahead of any late-breaking rival.

I think there is a strong chance MrBeast’s next video stays above 20 million day-1 views, but the market’s heavy bias toward Yes suggests the bar is not guaranteed. My estimate is that the chance of less than 20 million views is moderate rather than likely.

Trump buying Greenland is virtually impossible due to Denmark and Greenland's explicit refusal to sell, legal barriers requiring Greenlandic consent under international law, and overwhelming public opposition with 85% of Greenlanders opposing US control.

The United States will not acquire any part of Greenland before 2029 due to insurmountable legal barriers, including Greenland's right to self-determination and Denmark's firm refusal to sell, making formal sovereignty transfer impossible without Greenlandic consent.

The market should resolve Yes, but the main uncertainty is whether GRVT can sustain a post-launch price high enough to keep FDV above $150M one day later. Given the strong live market pricing, the confirmed launch signaling, and the already-high implied valuation environment, Yes is the more likely outcome.

My independent estimate is that Elon Musk has a modest but real chance of visiting Mars before 2099, driven mostly by the enormous time horizon rather than confidence in any near-term Mars program. I put the probability higher than the current market because 2099 is far enough away that even a highly uncertain personal travel event can clear the bar if SpaceX or a successor Mars transport system eventually works.

Robinhood is highly likely to exceed 30.2 million funded customers in 2026, as it has already added 2.3 million customers in Q2 alone and needs only 0.5 million more in the remaining three quarters to hit the target, given its strong 9.5% year-on-year growth trajectory.

My independent estimate is that Section IV of the 25th Amendment is more likely than not to be used during Trump’s presidency, but still not highly likely. The biggest reason is that the threshold is extremely high and politically costly, yet the possibility remains non-trivial given the volatility of the remaining term.

My independent assessment is that Trump is more likely to tighten H-1B access than expand it, but the market appears slightly too confident in a No outcome. The best read is that a narrow form of “expansion” through preference for higher-paid applicants is plausible, while a true increase in H-1B volume is unlikely.

The market looks close to a coin flip, but I lean slightly toward Yes. The most likely path is continued growth with unemployment staying below 5.0%, while inflation is the harder variable and is the main reason this is not a stronger Yes.

Spain is the clear independent favorite to win the 2030 FIFA World Cup due to its 2026 title, host nation advantage, and a golden generation entering its prime, making the market's 18% probability slightly undervaluing their true chances.

The United States will not acquire any part of Canada before 2029, as there is no legal, diplomatic, or military pathway for annexation and both US and Canadian leadership have effectively dismissed the possibility despite Trump's rhetorical claims.

Benjamin Netanyahu remains a live contender because coalition arithmetic can outweigh unfavorable personal polling, but the balance of evidence still leans against him becoming the next prime minister. The market’s No price is directionally right, though I would not push it as high as the current 62.5% because his path is still credible if the right-wing bloc holds together.

I estimate a moderate chance that some company will make an AGI claim before Jan. 1, 2028, but not a high one. The market looks slightly conservative, because the event only requires an announcement, yet the main bottleneck is still whether any lab feels confident enough to publicly use the AGI label.

The market is correctly leaning against a sub-40 result. Based on recent posting patterns and the current pricing, I estimate a modestly low but not negligible chance that Musk stays under 40 posts in the July 23 to July 25 window.

Alibaba is the favorite, but the lead is not secure because Qwen3.8 Max still lacks independent leaderboard confirmation and rivals like Kimi K3 remain close. I estimate Alibaba has about a 66% chance to finish July with the best Chinese model on the relevant leaderboard.

Anthropic is positioned to IPO before OpenAI due to its earlier SEC filing, October 2026 target debut, and willingness to proceed at a $965 billion valuation, while OpenAI delays to 2027 to secure a $1 trillion floor.

I assess a modestly better-than-even chance of Yes, but not a strong one. The market is still far below the 60-call threshold, yet there is enough time for a recovery if security conditions improve and shipping confidence returns faster than recent data suggests.

The probability that any part of Cuba becomes the 51st U.S. state before January 20, 2029 is virtually zero, as the concept relies on AI-generated imagery and unverified social media speculation rather than official policy, legislative action, or diplomatic agreement.

I estimate a 52% chance that the Chicago Pro Football Team ends up with a new stadium location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 regular season. Illinois still has a plausible path through Arlington Heights or another in-state compromise, but the momentum and legislative progress in Indiana make an Indiana outcome slightly more likely overall.

A face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin before January 1, 2027 is highly unlikely given Putin's explicit July 2026 rejection of the proposal and his insistence that expert-level agreements must precede any leader summit.

The market is close to a coin flip, but I lean slightly toward Yes because the case is still active, the charged offense is a homicide offense, and prosecutors appear to have substantial evidence and are pursuing a serious trial path. The main reason to stay near 50% is that conviction by July 31, 2027 is far from assured in a capital case with a long procedural runway.

The probability of the next President confirming exactly 1 Supreme Court justice is approximately 38%, as the most likely outcome is 0 confirmations due to a full bench, with 2 confirmations being a strong secondary possibility if one or two vacancies emerge.

The baseline consensus from major institutions (IMF, OECD, Morgan Stanley) projects global GDP growth of 2.8%–3.4% in 2027, making a global recession unlikely, though elevated tail risks from geopolitical escalation could flip the outlook.