How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

As of July 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court consists of nine justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and eight associate justices, with no confirmed vacancies reported in the provided search results. The next President (relative to the 2024 election) is already in office for the 2025-2029 term, and the number of confirmations depends entirely on whether any justices retire, die, or resign during this period. Historical data shows that presidents typically confirm 0 to 3 justices per term, with 0 being common if the court is full at the start. Given the current full bench and the advanced age of some justices like Clarence Thomas (34+ years tenure), the probability of 0 confirmations is high, but the possibility of 1 or 2 vacancies emerging is non-trivial.

The market currently prices 1 confirmation at 42%, 2 at 34%, and 0 at 23%. This suggests the market believes a vacancy is likely but overweights the single-confirmation outcome relative to the zero-confirmation scenario. My independent assessment lowers the probability of exactly 1 confirmation to 38% because the most likely scenario is 0 confirmations (if no vacancies occur), followed by 2 confirmations (if two vacancies emerge). The market may be mispricing this event by underestimating the likelihood of a full bench persisting through the term and overestimating the probability of exactly one vacancy.

Key factors include the ages and tenure of current justices, the political climate for nominations, and Senate composition. If the Senate is aligned with the President, confirmations are smoother, but if not, even a single vacancy might not be filled. The historical average of 1-2 confirmations per term supports a moderate probability for 1, but the current full bench shifts the distribution toward 0 or 2.