Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

The core question is whether IMF PortWatch will publish a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz at any point before the end of 2026. The recent data argue that the strait is still nowhere near that bar: current reported daily traffic is in the low teens, Reuters reported just three commodity vessels on July 17, and other recent snapshots place the latest 7-day average around roughly 10 to 15 vessels per day. That is far below the required 60, so the market still needs a large and sustained recovery rather than a brief spike.

At the same time, the calendar still leaves significant runway. A resolution to Yes does not require the strait to stay normalized permanently, only to clear the 60-call threshold for a single published 7-day moving average before year-end. If diplomacy stabilizes the security environment, insurers and shipowners may return faster than expected, and weekly averages can climb quickly once confidence flips. Past reporting also indicates that traffic has already shown the ability to rebound from near-standstill levels into the 25 to 40 range when conditions temporarily improved, which means the system is not completely locked at single digits.

The strongest case against Yes is that the operational and security backdrop remains severely disrupted. Recent reporting describes renewed attacks, blockade risk, rerouting, and shipping reluctance, with some coverage characterizing the strait as effectively closed to commercial shipping. IMF PortWatch-linked commentary and live trackers show traffic still at a fraction of pre-crisis norms, and commodity-specific flows such as LNG and large tanker traffic remain especially constrained. To reach a 60-call 7-day average, the market likely needs not just a partial thaw but a broad and durable normalization across multiple cargo classes.

Market sentiment is somewhat more optimistic than the latest physical data might justify. The current price implies a roughly coin-flip outlook, which is consistent with the idea that traders believe a deal, de-escalation, or enforced reopening could arrive in time. But compared with the present traffic levels and the persistent disruption described in the news flow, that price still seems to assume a relatively smooth recovery path. My assessment gives meaningful weight to the possibility of a second-half rebound, but it keeps the base case below 60% because the traffic gap is very large and the security risk remains elevated.