Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu remains a live contender because coalition arithmetic can outweigh unfavorable personal polling, but the balance of evidence still leans against him becoming the next prime minister. The market’s No price is directionally right, though I would not push it as high as the current 62.5% because his path is still credible if the right-wing bloc holds together.
Analysis
The key point in this market is that Israel does not choose its prime minister by direct national vote; the decisive question is who can be sworn in after the election with a working Knesset majority. That gives Netanyahu a real structural advantage even when he is weak personally, because he only needs to assemble 61 seats and secure enough coalition discipline to survive the post-election bargaining. Reporting around the election timing is now settled on October 27, 2026, and Netanyahu has publicly said he will run again and expects to win, so he is unquestionably in the race and still actively campaigning.
The biggest argument against Netanyahu is that the political environment remains hostile. Recent coverage describes the election as a referendum on his leadership, and multiple sources say Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as his strongest challenger; some polling summaries show Eisenkot ahead on suitability for prime minister and opposition blocs potentially ahead on seats. The public mood also appears tired of Netanyahu, with one cited poll finding 61% think he should not run again, and other reporting describing the election as shaped by anger over the war, governance failures, and his legal and political baggage.
At the same time, Netanyahu is far from eliminated. Several sources note that Likud may still be the largest party or near the top, and that the religious-right parties are highly likely to prefer him if they clear the threshold and remain cohesive. Bloomberg-style coalition analysis and other reporting emphasize that he can lose the popularity contest and still return as prime minister if his bloc and a handful of allies get to 61 seats, which is why seat math matters more than head-to-head favorability. His recent legislative maneuvering also suggests he is trying to strengthen that right-wing coalition path before voters decide.
My estimate is that the market is pricing the right general direction, but a 62.5% No outcome seems a bit too strong given the amount of time left and the many ways coalition negotiations can break Netanyahu’s opponents. Eisenkot, Bennett-Lapid style coordination, and anti-Netanyahu fatigue all make a replacement plausible, but Netanyahu’s incumbency, name recognition, and durable right-wing alliance still give him a meaningful chance to remain in office after the election.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Netanyahu remains the incumbent and has the strongest national recognition among Israeli politicians.
- Arguments for Yes: If Likud and its natural right-wing partners hold together, he can still reach the 61-seat threshold even without leading in popularity.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Recent polling and reporting show Netanyahu trailing or underperforming against Eisenkot and broader opposition options.
- Arguments against Yes: Public anger over the war, governance, and Netanyahu's long tenure creates a strong anti-incumbent current.
Key drivers
- Coalition arithmetic will decide the outcome more than national vote share.
- Netanyahu still has a credible path through Likud plus religious-right allies.
- Eisenkot and other challengers have weakened Netanyahu's personal standing in polling.
- Public fatigue and anger over governance reduce his margin for post-election maneuvering.
Risk factors
- A fragmented opposition could fail to convert polling advantage into a governing majority.
- Right-wing parties may rally behind Netanyahu if he remains the best path to power.
Scenarios
Best case
The right-wing bloc performs better than expected, Likud remains the anchor party, and coalition negotiations lock in enough religious-right and allied seats for Netanyahu to be sworn in again.
Most likely
Netanyahu remains competitive but ultimately falls short as anti-Netanyahu forces combine enough support to prevent him from securing the premiership, while still leaving some uncertainty because coalition talks can be messy.
Worst case
The opposition coordinates effectively, Eisenkot or another challenger becomes the consensus alternative, and Netanyahu is unable to assemble 61 seats after the election.
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