2026: Trump's bad year?

The bear case for Trump in 2026 is already materializing through a series of concrete legal and political failures that define a 'bad year.' The Supreme Court has invalidated Trump's extensive tariffs enacted under emergency powers, a ruling that affirms lower court decisions limiting his authority and carries significant global repercussions. Simultaneously, lower court judges across the country are increasingly issuing decisive rulings blocking his initiatives on immigration, tariffs, and DOJ prosecutions, with a Washington Post analysis noting he defied judges in roughly one-third of all cases against him by mid-July. This judicial resistance is unprecedented for any presidential administration and directly undermines his policy agenda.

The most immediate catalyst for the bear case occurred just eight days ago on July 13, 2026, when Trump signed proclamations slashing Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments by roughly 90%, cutting approximately 3 million acres. Legal scholars argue this action violates the Antiquities Act, which grants presidents power to create but not dismantle monuments, making the cuts highly vulnerable to federal court reversal. Conservation groups and Tribal leaders are already preparing lawsuits, and the move has triggered significant political backlash even within Republican Utah, where 71% of voters oppose the cuts. This combination of statutory overreach and immediate litigation creates a high probability of a legal defeat that will dominate the news cycle for the remainder of the year.

The current market price of 9.9% for 'Yes' appears severely mispriced, likely underestimating the cumulative impact of these confirmed events. The market may be reacting to Trump's political resilience or the fact that the year is only halfway over, but the evidence of a 'bear case' is not speculative; it is documented in Supreme Court rulings, district court blockades, and active lawsuits filed within the current year. With the Justice Department losing at least a dozen election lawsuits and Trump facing a trial against the BBC set for February 2027, the trajectory for 2026 is one of consistent legal rebuffs rather than political triumph. The convergence of these factors suggests the probability of the bear case occurring is far higher than the market implies.