Edges for Jul 16, 2026

Given that the three policy pillars of the bull case (tax cuts/deregulation, likely Fed rate cuts, and a weakening of regulatory restraints via the Supreme Court) are already in place, the outcome now primarily hinges on the 2026 midterms and a small residual macro/geo risk; I assess a substantially higher chance of the bull case occurring than the market does.

Based on clear executive actions, formal notifications, mass staff removals, and program cancellations in 2025, I assess with very high confidence that USAID was eliminated as an independent agency during Trump's term.

I assess a better-than-even chance that a credible "bear case" for Trump will materialize in 2026 — a year of cumulative legal, financial, and policy setbacks that meaningfully weaken his political position.

A presidential pardon for Barron Trump before Jan 21, 2029 is legally possible but extremely unlikely; my independent probability is very low (4%) given the absence of legal exposure and the huge political costs it would impose on a sitting president.

I assess a low probability (10%) that any U.S. quarterly real GDP will exceed 5% (annualized) in any quarter from Q1 2025 through Q4 2028 — a possible but unlikely tail outcome driven mainly by a sharp recession/rebound or exceptionally large, timely stimulus plus a rapid investment surge.

I think the under-40 outcome is more likely than the market price suggests, but it is not close to guaranteed because Musk can still switch into a high-volume posting burst at any time. My estimate is that there is a solid majority chance he stays below 40 tweets in the window.

Independent assessment: low probability the Bears will relocate to a new Illinois site by the first game of the 2028 season—major momentum is toward Hammond, Indiana and the 2028 timeline is very tight.

Anthropic has already pushed the deadline out to July 19, but a further extension beyond that date still looks more likely than not to fail. The pattern of repeated rollovers supports some chance of another last-minute announcement, yet the explicit July 19 endpoint and lack of any guarantee make No the stronger call.

Independent assessment: I judge a modest but below-even chance that Justice Samuel Alito will resign during Trump's term; current markets appear to overweight strategic retirement probability and age alone.

The most likely outcome is that The Odyssey opens below $115 million domestically, with the center of gravity of current tracking sitting closer to the $90 million to $100 million range. There is upside risk from premium screens and fan-driven demand, but the weight of current projections still leans clearly to the under.

I assess a very low probability (~3%) that Trump will "take back the Panama Canal" during his term; legal, diplomatic and military barriers make a literal reclamation overwhelmingly unlikely.

Based on recent official counts and short-term projection trajectories, a small positive net change (0.01%–0.99%) from July 2025 to July 2027 is unlikely; I assign low probability to the 'Yes' outcome.

After a blind read of the facts, I assess Todd Blanche as the most likely pick but not a near-certain outcome — I put his independent probability at 60%, with Lee Zeldin as the strongest backup and several plausible fallback nominees if Blanche falters.

I assess a meaningful but minority chance (about one-in-three) that any company will publicly *announce* it has achieved AGI before Jan 1, 2027 — higher than the current market price, because an announcement is a low-verification, high-incentive action that several frontier actors have signaled willingness to take.

I think the market is slightly overpricing the odds of a new pandemic before GTA VI. The current evidence points to a real but still modest risk, with the most likely outcome being that no global pandemic is formally declared before release.

Messi is still in the race, but FIFA’s current Golden Boot table has Mbappe ahead on the tie-break, so I rate Messi as a slight underdog to finish as the official top scorer.

The SPR is only 16.5 million barrels above the 300 million threshold, and at recent draw rates it could cross that line by late August. Still, the path is policy-driven and uneven, so I see this as likely but far from certain, well below the market’s near-certain pricing.

Tyler Robinson is much more likely than not to avoid a homicide conviction before the July 31, 2027 deadline, mainly because the case is still early and capital cases usually move slowly. A conviction is still possible if the case is fast-tracked or ends in an admission-based plea, but the timeline works against Yes.

I assess an 8% chance the United States will acquire sovereign control of any part of Greenland before 2029. Sovereignty transfer is highly improbable given legal, political, and public opposition, but a small tail risk remains from extreme pressure, crisis, or semantic/technical workarounds.

I assess a roughly even but slightly elevated chance that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be the next cabinet member to leave the Trump Cabinet (50%), driven by ongoing legal/policy friction and reputational risk, though timing is uncertain and other short‑tenure aides remain plausible exits.

Given unanimous public rejection by Greenland and Denmark, legal barriers, and no announced negotiations, I assess a very low probability that Trump will successfully buy any part of Greenland during his term — around 4%.

Independent assessment: overwhelmingly likely there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term — I estimate ~95% probability of no acquisition, with only a tiny residual chance for any priced acquisition bands.

Die With A Smile has an unusually strong mid-year position for a calendar-year Spotify title, with massive cumulative streams and extraordinary staying power. Even so, the remaining half of 2026 leaves room for a new breakout to overtake it, so I see it as a live but still minority-probability outcome.

Ethereum has a real but still limited path to $3,000 by year-end, with the market currently pricing the event as a low-probability outcome. I think the true chance is higher than the market implies, but the combination of overhead resistance, mixed ETF flow trends, and uncertain macro conditions still keeps this below a coin-flip.

Anthropic is still likely to release the next Claude Opus before August 31 based on the recent update cadence and the amount of time remaining, but the lack of an official announcement keeps this short of certainty. The market looks overly confident to me, so I price in a meaningful delay or naming shift risk.

Spain looks like a slight favorite in this final, but the edge is modest because Argentina arrives in excellent form and one-match finals are highly volatile. I estimate Spain wins about 54% of the time, somewhat above the current market price.

Independent assessment: low probability that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act before 2027-01-01 — roughly a 10% chance, driven by high political/legal costs, available alternatives, and short time horizon, though a sudden severe crisis could force invocation.

China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 is highly unlikely — I assess a ~6% chance based on the current $11.5T gap, realistic growth/inflation trajectories, and limited scope for rapid RMB revaluation or sustained double‑digit nominal growth.

I assess a low probability that the U.S. will sign a formal free trade agreement (FTA) with China before Jan 20, 2029 — the most likely outcome is continued managed trade/reciprocal tariff deals, not an FTA.

A Stripe-PayPal transaction is now plausible, but the current bid structure does not clearly give Stripe controlling interest, which makes a qualifying yes outcome meaningfully less likely than the headline deal odds. I think the market is overstating the chance of a resolution that fits this market’s specific wording.

The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated sharply in the last week, but a true invasion aimed at establishing territorial control is still far more demanding than the current pattern of strikes and blockade enforcement. I think the market is a bit too high on a full invasion scenario, and the more likely outcome is continued coercive military pressure without a ground campaign.

Arizona is a live contender because its ABS success rate is already strong, but it is not the current leader and its low challenge volume makes it hard to finish first. I think the Diamondbacks have a meaningful but clearly sub-50% chance, around 28%, to end the season with the top team rate.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance (15%) that Section 4 will be used during Trump's presidency—possible if a clear, undeniable incapacity or a rare bipartisan break occurs, but unlikely given the VP gatekeeper role, high congressional thresholds, and lack of precedent.

I assess a 22% independent probability that Israel and Saudi Arabia will fully normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029 — the combination of entrenched Saudi red lines and the October 2026 Israeli election make normalization possible but unlikely within this window.

Alibaba is still a serious contender, but the latest competitive signals suggest it is not the clear leader right now. I think it has a plausible chance to retake the top Chinese spot by month-end, but the market is somewhat too optimistic on a yes outcome.

Trump is more likely than not to appear in the champions photo, because he has reportedly been confirmed for the final and for the on-pitch trophy presentation. The main uncertainty is not attendance but whether he remains in the frame for the official photo rather than stepping aside.

I assess a ~32% independent chance that the U.S. will experience a recession at some point in calendar-year 2027 — the baseline expansion dominates, but a meaningful tail risk from geopolitics or policy errors keeps the odds elevated.

Given public refusals, security constraints, stalled talks, and a short time window, I assess a low chance (~12%) that Zelenskyy and Putin will meet in person before 1 Jan 2027.

NVIDIA is still the likeliest No, but the gap to Apple has narrowed enough that an Apple earnings-driven rerating could put NVIDIA in second place by month-end.

Independent assessment: a very low probability (~2%) that the United States will legally acquire any portion of Canadian sovereign territory before 2029. The combination of legal, diplomatic, political, and military barriers makes transfer effectively near-impossible; only extreme, low-probability tail events produce a non‑zero chance.

Based on legislative behavior, program baselines, and recent developments (DOGE failure, new spending bills, rising deficits), a meaningful federal outlay reduction of $250B before 2028 is very unlikely — I put the independent probability at 6%.

I assess a 72% chance Robinhood reports above 30.2M funded customers in 2026 — likely but not certain; the company needs modest acceleration vs. Q2 trends and H2 catalysts make that plausible.

Marine Le Pen has a credible path to victory and is now clearly a live contender, but the French runoff structure still gives her a real structural handicap. I assess her as a meaningful underdog rather than a favorite, with a higher chance than the current market implies.

Scheffler is still the strongest single-player contender in the field because he is the defending champion, an elite major performer, and the market favorite. Even so, the missed cut in Scotland and the inherent volatility of links golf make a win meaningfully less than the posted 25% implied chance, so I make him about 21%.

The jacket is already very close to the $80k line, and the combination of a buzzy tech-icon item plus a live auction ending tomorrow makes a yes outcome more likely than not by a wide margin. I still leave some room for a miss because the final hammer price could stall if the late bidding is less aggressive than expected.

Brown-Forman has real strategic value and has already been in takeover discussions this year, but the recent facts still point more toward independence than a signed deal. I make a Yes probability meaningfully below the market, at 31%.

United Russia is still the favorite to post the largest net seat gain, but the edge is not overwhelming because it already starts from a very large faction and some smaller parties could improve from low bases. My estimate is that Yes is somewhat more likely than No, but far from a lock.

Democrats are reasonably well positioned to win the House, but the Senate is still the bottleneck, so a Democratic sweep of both chambers is more likely than not to fall short. I price a Yes outcome at 39%, below the current market because the most probable resolution still looks like split control.

I assess about a 12% chance Scottie Scheffler completes the career Grand Slam before 2028 (i.e., wins the U.S. Open in 2027). He remains elite but has just one realistic shot before the cutoff and his 2026 form raises uncertainty.

I estimate a 66% chance that President Trump will be impeached by the House before Jan 20, 2029 — impeachment by the House is more likely than not over this multi-year horizon given active proceedings, mounting evidence, and political dynamics that increase the cumulative chance across 2026–2028.

Netanyahu is still very much alive as a contender, but the freshest polling and coalition signals point slightly against him. I think the market is a bit too generous on his chances, so I make him a modest underdog at 31%.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that Trump will be impeached and actually removed from office before Jan 20, 2029—most likely he will be impeached but acquitted in the Senate; my independent probability for removal is 14%.

CF Montréal have a plausible home edge and the broader betting market slightly favors them, but Toronto FC’s strong recent head-to-head record keeps this from being a confident Yes. My estimate is a modest Montreal win probability rather than a clear favorite’s edge.

A sub-$200 million opening is possible, but it looks unlikely given the strength of current tracking and pre-sales. The most probable outcome is that Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens comfortably above the threshold.

Based on current rulemaking, public statements, and historical behavior, it is unlikely Trump will expand high-skill immigration during his term; I assign only a small probability of expansion (12%).

The odds of July annual inflation coming in at 3.1% or less look quite low, because the latest official reading was still 3.5% in June and the next print would need a meaningful step down in only one month. I would put the chance of Yes at 7%.

I think Alibaba is more likely than not to remain on the 1260H list through June 30, 2027. The lawsuit and temporary court relief create some upside for delisting, but the current official posture still points to continued designation.

JD Vance has a credible but still minority path to the presidency: he looks like the early Republican favorite, but his general-election ceiling remains uncertain because of soft favorability and an unsettled Democratic field. I place his win chance slightly above the current market, but still well below even odds.

Anthropic is substantially more likely to IPO before OpenAI; based on filings, stated targets, fundraising and operational posture I assign a high probability that Anthropic will list first.

The most likely outcome is a hold at 14.25%, but I still assign a meaningful chance of a 25-basis-point cut because the Bank of Russia has left some room for a cautious, symbolic easing move. Overall, the probability of a decrease is below the market’s implied 33% and sits around 29%.