Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

The strongest anchor point is that Alibaba is currently on the official June 8, 2026 Section 1260H list. The DoD release says it updated the list to 188 entities and that it will keep updating it as appropriate, while the new Section 805 guidance makes clear that the related indirect supply-chain prohibition reaches June 30, 2027. That means any Yes outcome requires a later affirmative delisting step, not just a pause in enforcement.

The main pro-Yes development is the legal challenge. Alibaba sued the U.S. government on June 23, 2026, and a federal judge later ordered the Pentagon not to enforce the new lobbying restriction against Alibaba while the challenge is reviewed. But that order was expressly narrow and not a final ruling on the merits or on Alibaba’s inclusion on the 1260H list, so it is better read as procedural relief than as a sign that delisting is imminent.

Historically, DoD can remove companies from the 1260H list, so the market is not relying on a fictional mechanism. The problem for Yes is that removals appear uncommon relative to the list’s size, and the most recent official 1260H-related release index I found still points to the June 8, 2026 update rather than any later Alibaba delisting. Taken together, I think the market is giving too much credit to legal noise and not enough weight to how deliberate and politically sensitive an actual removal would be.