Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Netanyahu is still very much alive as a contender, but the freshest polling and coalition signals point slightly against him. I think the market is a bit too generous on his chances, so I make him a modest underdog at 31%.
Analysis
The latest polling snapshot is not friendly to Netanyahu. A July 14 Channel 12 survey put Gadi Eisenkot ahead of him as preferred prime minister by 43% to 34%, while also showing the anti-Netanyahu bloc at 59 seats and the pro-Netanyahu bloc at 51, with Yashar on 23 seats and Likud on 22. A separate Maariv poll published just days earlier had the Netanyahu bloc at only 50 seats. That does not make a Netanyahu comeback impossible, but it does mean he is starting from behind in both personal popularity and coalition arithmetic.
Netanyahu is clearly trying to shore up his coalition lane, especially with ultra-Orthodox parties. In the past day, Israel’s parliament approved laws that effectively freeze arrests of ultra-Orthodox draft evaders and elevate religious study, which AP described as a last-ditch effort to woo religious parties ahead of the fall election. But that same issue is politically toxic: the army chief has publicly objected, many voters are angry about the draft exemption, and recent reporting says Shas leaders have not fully committed to backing Netanyahu again. Those concessions may help him keep Haredi partners close, but they also highlight how narrow and controversial his path is.
The structural reason Netanyahu still has a meaningful chance is Israel’s coalition system. He does not need to win a direct vote for prime minister; he needs enough Knesset support to build a government, and the right-wing camp can still consolidate if the opposition fragments among Bennett, Eisenkot, Lapid, and Lieberman. Reuters also notes that Eisenkot is surging and could oust Netanyahu, but the same reporting emphasizes that the outcome is hard to predict and that coalition deals can shift quickly. My view is that the odds still favor someone else, but not overwhelmingly, because Netanyahu remains the most proven coalition operator on the right and could still benefit from a late shift in seats or post-election bargaining.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Netanyahu still leads the most cohesive right-Haredi governing bloc, which gives him a realistic coalition path if the numbers tighten after the election.
- Arguments for Yes: His recent concessions to ultra-Orthodox parties may improve the odds that Shas and UTJ stay aligned with him after the vote.
- Arguments for Yes: Israeli coalition negotiations are highly fluid, so a small seat shift or one opposition defection could still produce a Netanyahu government.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The newest polls show Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu personally and the anti-Netanyahu bloc slightly ahead in seats, which is a bad starting point for Netanyahu.
- Arguments against Yes: Even after Netanyahu’s recent maneuvering, the pro-Netanyahu bloc remains well short of 61 seats in current surveys.
- Arguments against Yes: Key Haredi figures are not fully locked in, and the draft-exemption fight is creating backlash that could hurt Netanyahu’s broader appeal.
Key drivers
- The final seat distribution after the October 27 election will determine whether Netanyahu can assemble 61 votes with Haredi and far-right allies.
- Whether Bennett, Eisenkot, Lapid, and Lieberman coordinate effectively will decide if the anti-Netanyahu camp can turn polling strength into an actual government.
- Netanyahu’s ability to keep Shas and United Torah Judaism inside his orbit is one of the biggest swing factors in his favor.
- Security or diplomatic shocks before election day could reset voter priorities and help an incumbent-centered right-wing message.
Risk factors
- Late-campaign polling movement could widen Eisenkot’s lead or improve Bennett’s position enough to block Netanyahu’s path.
- If Haredi support wobbles or is traded away in coalition talks, Netanyahu’s governing math could collapse quickly.
- The election may produce another hung Knesset, making the eventual PM depend on post-vote bargaining rather than pre-election expectations.
- Public anger over the draft exemption issue could depress turnout or shift soft right voters toward alternative hawkish candidates.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu holds his right-Haredi bloc together, picks up a few extra seats from the final campaign, and then assembles a 61-seat coalition after the vote, allowing him to be sworn in again.
Most likely
The election remains close but Netanyahu ends up short of the necessary coalition math, and post-election bargaining tilts toward a rival or a broad anti-Netanyahu arrangement.
Worst case
Eisenkot or Bennett becomes the anchor of a broad anti-Netanyahu coalition, the opposition converts its polling edge into a majority, and Netanyahu is blocked from forming a government.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as the next Prime Minister | 31% | 34% |
| Someone else is sworn in, or no Netanyahu government emerges by the deadline | 69% | 67% |
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