Edges for Jul 15, 2026

Given that the three policy pillars of the bull case (tax cuts/deregulation, likely Fed rate cuts, and a weakening of regulatory restraints via the Supreme Court) are already in place, the outcome now primarily hinges on the 2026 midterms and a small residual macro/geo risk; I assess a substantially higher chance of the bull case occurring than the market does.

Based on clear executive actions, formal notifications, mass staff removals, and program cancellations in 2025, I assess with very high confidence that USAID was eliminated as an independent agency during Trump's term.

The market is pricing in a near-certain August Opus launch, but Anthropic's public materials still show Opus 4.8 as the current Opus model and there has been no official new Opus announcement in the past week. I think the true probability is much lower than the market's 97.55% implied price.

I assess a better-than-even chance that a credible "bear case" for Trump will materialize in 2026 — a year of cumulative legal, financial, and policy setbacks that meaningfully weaken his political position.

Assuming the market's binary question is whether the 4‑year (2025–2028) average annual measles cases will be >= 2,000, I assess an 80% probability that the average will meet or exceed that threshold.

I think the under-40 outcome is more likely than the market suggests, because Musk’s recent posting pace has generally sat below the 20-posts-per-day pace needed to threaten this line over a 48-hour window. Still, he is bursty enough that a legal, political, or AI-related flare-up could push the count over 40.

A presidential pardon for Barron Trump before Jan 21, 2029 is legally possible but extremely unlikely; my independent probability is very low (4%) given the absence of legal exposure and the huge political costs it would impose on a sitting president.

I think the Yes side is meaningfully overpriced. Recent outbreak headlines are serious, but they still look more like active regional emergencies than the start of a true new pandemic, so I assign a low single-digit to low-teens chance of Yes.

I assess a low probability (10%) that any U.S. quarterly real GDP will exceed 5% (annualized) in any quarter from Q1 2025 through Q4 2028 — a possible but unlikely tail outcome driven mainly by a sharp recession/rebound or exceptionally large, timely stimulus plus a rapid investment surge.

I estimate a 52% chance Elon Musk will visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099 — slightly favorable to Yes, driven by a high likelihood SpaceX enables crewed Mars travel in the coming decades combined with Musk’s strong personal incentive to go, partially offset by mortality and personal/practical constraints.

Based on recent official counts and short-term projection trajectories, a small positive net change (0.01%–0.99%) from July 2025 to July 2027 is unlikely; I assign low probability to the 'Yes' outcome.

I assess a 25% chance the Chicago team will relocate to a new Illinois site by the first game of the 2028 regular season; Indiana remains the clear favorite given current team and state momentum, with Illinois only likely via a last‑minute, politically costly rescue.

I assess a very low probability (~3%) that Trump will "take back the Panama Canal" during his term; legal, diplomatic and military barriers make a literal reclamation overwhelmingly unlikely.

Jay Clayton is the clear favorite given Trump's nomination and a near-term confirmation hearing, but political frictions (past subpoenas, lack of IC background) make his confirmation plausible rather than certain — I assess a 70% chance he becomes DNI before Jan 20, 2029.

I assess a below-even but material chance that Justice Alito will resign during Trump's 2025–2029 term; I put the independent probability at 45% based on his age, ongoing activity, and political timing incentives.

I think the chance of another extension by July 19 is below the market price, because Anthropic has already given paid users one more week and the public evidence still points to July 19 as the current planned cutoff. I would price a further extension at 34%, with the more likely outcome being that Fable 5 moves to usage-credit-only billing after the current window ends.

Alibaba looks like the likeliest winner because Qwen is currently the highest-ranked Chinese model on Arena, but the lead is not so large that I would treat it as locked in.

I lean Yes because this summit is explicitly centered on defense investment announcements, and Trump’s recent remarks have repeatedly featured large-dollar figures in a very repetitive style. The market is close to even, but I think the setup favors him crossing 20 combined mentions of million, billion, or trillion more often than not.

I assess a 55% chance Todd Blanche ultimately becomes Trump's next Attorney General — plausible given incumbent and White House support, but meaningfully vulnerable because of GOP defections, heavy DOJ/judicial opposition, and the potential for a withdrawn nomination.

I assess an 8% chance the United States will acquire sovereign control of any part of Greenland before 2029. Sovereignty transfer is highly improbable given legal, political, and public opposition, but a small tail risk remains from extreme pressure, crisis, or semantic/technical workarounds.

The odds of a 2026 Stripe-PayPal acquisition announcement are now high because Reuters reported a funded joint offer for PayPal at $60.50 per share. I still leave some room for failure because the companies have not confirmed anything and the deal can still stall or be rejected.

A new Avengers: Doomsday trailer is more likely than not to debut at SDCC 2026, with Marvel’s confirmed Hall H presence and the film’s December release window making the event a natural launch point. I’m slightly more bullish than the market and would price Yes at 73%.

Brown-Forman has real strategic value and has already been in takeover discussions this year, but the recent facts still point more toward independence than a signed deal. I make a Yes probability meaningfully below the market, at 31%.

Dimitrov looks like a real but not leading contender, so I put his chance around 17%. His recent prize surge is impressive, but the 2026 Fields race still looks crowded and the committee tends to spread recognition across a broader set of breakthroughs.

China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 is highly unlikely — I assess a ~6% chance based on the current $11.5T gap, realistic growth/inflation trajectories, and limited scope for rapid RMB revaluation or sustained double‑digit nominal growth.

I assign a 46% chance of Yes. The latest week shows traffic weakening sharply again and military escalation worsening the operating environment, even though a year-end rebound is still plausible if diplomacy stabilizes the strait.

Independent assessment: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the single most likely next Cabinet departure, but not a lock — I assign him a 48% chance of being the next person to leave, with several plausible challengers close behind.

Given unanimous public rejection by Greenland and Denmark, legal barriers, and no announced negotiations, I assess a very low probability that Trump will successfully buy any part of Greenland during his term — around 4%.

I assess a very high probability that there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term — acquisition is legally, politically, and practically implausible under current conditions.

I assess a modest but meaningful chance that some company will *announce* it has achieved AGI before 2027-01-01, driven more by PR/definition choices and frontier-lab optimism than by independently verifiable breakthroughs.

I think Alibaba is more likely than not to remain on the 1260H list through June 30, 2027. The lawsuit and temporary court relief create some upside for delisting, but the current official posture still points to continued designation.

I think the chance of an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by December 31, 2026 is low, but not negligible. The current speculation is real and persistent, yet the gap between rumor and a formally announced control-changing transaction remains large.

I assess a material but not dominant chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act before Jan 20, 2029 — driven by election-related pressure, legal ambiguity, and prior escalatory moves, but constrained by institutional resistance and enormous political costs.

Messi is still in the race, but FIFA’s current Golden Boot table has Mbappe ahead on the tie-break, so I rate Messi as a slight underdog to finish as the official top scorer.

I assess a low but non-trivial chance (15%) that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will be *used* during Trump's presidency — plausible only after a clear, acute incapacity or an unprecedented shift by VP JD Vance and key Cabinet members; routine political pressure alone is unlikely to clear the procedural and political hurdles.

Trump is more likely than not to appear in the winning team’s championship photo, with the main reason being that his attendance and role in the trophy ceremony have already been publicly reported. The narrowest uncertainty is not attendance itself but whether he is still visibly in frame when the official photo is taken.

I assess a low probability that the U.S. will sign a formal free trade agreement (FTA) with China before Jan 20, 2029 — the most likely outcome is continued managed trade/reciprocal tariff deals, not an FTA.

I estimate a 22% chance that Ethereum reaches $3,000 by December 31, 2026. That is materially above the current market price of 12%, but still reflects that ETH would need a very large rally from current levels in a short time.

I assess a very small but non‑zero chance (~1%) that the U.S. will acquire any part of Canada by 21 Jan 2029 — overwhelmingly most plausible is a tiny, negotiated border adjustment or land swap, not annexation or conquest.

Late-year hike odds are higher than the current market price implies because the Fed remains divided and inflation is still above target, but softer June CPI and weak hiring keep this from being a strong Yes.

Sinner looks like the narrow favorite, not a runaway one. His Wimbledon title and elite hard-court résumé justify a probability above the current market, but the long runway to late August and the possibility of a healthy Alcaraz keep this from being a near-certainty.

Given public refusals, security constraints, stalled talks, and a short time window, I assess a low chance (~12%) that Zelenskyy and Putin will meet in person before 1 Jan 2027.

I think the market is too pessimistic: the best available July data still point to solid 2026 growth rather than a near-stall, so I put the chance of sub-0.5% full-year real GDP growth well below the current market price. The main path to Yes is a sharp second-half downturn, but the evidence so far does not point there.

Extended looks like a credible, revenue-generating perp DEX with real product momentum, so a $500M-plus launch FDV is plausible, but the lack of a confirmed token date and the explicit non-token status of points keeps this below a coin-flip. I estimate a 28% chance of Yes.

I assess about a 12% chance Scottie Scheffler completes the career Grand Slam before 2028 (i.e., wins the U.S. Open in 2027). He remains elite but has just one realistic shot before the cutoff and his 2026 form raises uncertainty.

I assess ~40% probability that the Fed will *hold* (0bps change) at the Dec 8, 2027 meeting — a close-to-even outcome driven by competing odds of earlier cuts versus a late-cycle hawkish surprise.

I assess a 72% chance Robinhood reports above 30.2M funded customers in 2026 — likely but not certain; the company needs modest acceleration vs. Q2 trends and H2 catalysts make that plausible.

I rate Clavicular’s chance of visiting Thailand in 2026 at 16%, slightly above the market price because he is openly flirting with an international-travel pivot, but still far below even odds because there is no concrete Thailand itinerary yet.

I estimate an 87% chance that the Fed makes no rate cuts in 2026. The latest inflation and labor data still justify a restrictive stance, and recent Fed communications lean more toward holding or even hiking than easing.

United Russia is still the favorite to post the largest net seat gain, but the edge is not overwhelming because it already starts from a very large faction and some smaller parties could improve from low bases. My estimate is that Yes is somewhat more likely than No, but far from a lock.

I rate the chance of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 at 34%. The bill has real bipartisan momentum, but the Senate floor hurdle and the tight 2026 calendar still make enactment more likely than not to slip.

I think the chance that OpenAI specifically announces earbuds or headphones in 2026 is below the market price. OpenAI is clearly building toward consumer hardware, but the freshest evidence points more toward a smart-speaker-like device or another non-audio-specific form factor than toward earbuds or headphones.

I see only a small chance, around 6%, that the U.S. makes a clear official announcement ending the blockade before July 24. The more likely outcome is continued enforcement amid talks and strikes rather than a clean suspension.

I assess a low likelihood that the Department of Education will be legally abolished before Jan 20, 2029 — the administration can shrink and hollow it out, but formal abolition requires Congress and is unlikely within the window.

I slightly favor Yes. The word "goal" is common enough in live soccer commentary that a full semifinal broadcast has a real chance to clear 75 mentions, especially with extra time possible and two attack-minded teams involved.

I think this is a somewhat below-market Yes at 24%. Trump is capable of repetitive number talk, but the announced topic is election-security focused rather than a naturally number-heavy economic speech.

Putin is still firmly in office and publicly active, so I see only a small chance of him being out as president by December 31, 2026. My estimate is 5%, which is below the market’s 9.5% yes price.

Yes looks unlikely, but not impossible. I put it at 8% because the latest official readings are still far below the 60-call threshold and the past week of news points to continued disruption rather than a clean return to normal.

I assess a low probability that President Trump will expand H‑1B / high‑skill immigration during his term; the administration has moved decisively toward restriction, so I place the independent probability at 12%.

I assess a low probability that Starbucks will report above 41,800 global stores in 2026 — roughly a 4% chance — because the Q2 2026 count plus the company's FY26 net-new guidance mathematically points below the threshold and management has signaled exceeding 41,800 is unlikely.