US real GDP growth in 2036?

The most relevant evidence points to a U.S. economy that is expected to grow at around 2% to a little above 2% in the medium term, not a collapse in trend growth. The Fed’s latest projections are still in the low-to-mid 2% zone through 2028, and the longer-horizon scenario cited in the news summary explicitly averages roughly 2.2% to 2.4% annually through 2036. That makes the 2.1% to 2.5% bucket the natural center of gravity, with 1.6% to 2.0% also plausible if productivity disappoints or demographics weigh more heavily than expected. The current macro backdrop does not point to imminent recession or sustained overheating, which supports a middle-of-the-distribution outcome rather than an extreme one.

Arguments for Yes are strongest if the long-run productivity story improves, especially from AI investment, capital deepening, and continued labor-market resilience. The recent data cited are mixed but not alarming: headline growth has been modest, yet private domestic demand has been stronger, and the Atlanta Fed’s near-term nowcast is elevated. If that mix persists and the economy avoids repeated policy shocks or severe balance-sheet stress, a mid-2% annual real growth rate in 2036 is entirely believable.

Arguments against Yes are that long-run growth is hard to sustain at the high end, and structural headwinds could still pull realized 2036 growth down toward the 1.6% to 2.0% band or even lower. Sticky inflation, fiscal constraints, aging demographics, and the risk that AI productivity gains take longer to diffuse all argue for caution. Still, the market appears to be leaning too heavily toward a sub-2% outcome given that the best available official and quasi-official forecasts cluster around trend-like growth rather than stagnation. I think the market slightly overprices downside and underprices a continued mid-2% expansion.